ASX Climbs as China PMI Misses, AUD Holds Steady

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
ASX 200	9,128.90	+1.69%
NZX 50	13,829.04	+0.95%
AUD/USD	0.70	-0.30%
NZD/USD	0.59	-0.48%
AUD/NZD	1.19	-0.10%
BHP	60.31	+1.96%
Gold	4,116.00	+1.65%
Brent Crude	84.76	-5.95%
Bitcoin	63,740.76	+0.41%
Australia 10Y Govt Yield	4.83%	-3.03%
NZ Short-term Rate	4.33%	-9.60%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Employment Change Quarter-over-Quarter	0.20	0.10	18:45
Unemployment Rate	5.30	5.40	18:45
Ai Group Industry Index	-30	-	19:00
Trade Balance	-3,018m	-1,100m	21:30

ASX 200 gains 1.69% to 9,128.90 while NZX 50 rises 0.95% amid commodity support.
AUD/USD holds near 0.70 despite China manufacturing PMI easing to 50.9; NZD/USD slips to 0.59.
Brent crude drops 5.95% to 84.76 as gold climbs 1.65% to 4,116 on safe-haven bids.

Yesterday's Recap

Equity markets in both Australia and New Zealand posted solid gains on 2 August with the ASX 200 advancing 1.69% to 9,128.90 and the NZX 50 adding 0.95% to 13,829.04. BHP shares rose 1.96% to 60.31, reflecting firmer iron-ore prices tied to Chinese steel output. The Australian dollar traded at 0.70 against the US dollar after a 0.30% decline while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.48% to 0.59.

Australian 10-year government yields eased 3.03% to 4.83% and the NZ short-term rate dropped 9.60% to 4.33%. No major ANZ data releases occurred on the day, leaving commodity and China-related flows as the dominant drivers. Bitcoin edged 0.41% higher to 63,740.76 while Brent crude fell sharply.

Commodity support from iron ore and gold helped underpin regional equities even as Brent crude prices declined sharply on shifting supply signals.

The Day Ahead

New Zealand releases Q2 employment change and unemployment rate data at 18:45 on 4 August, with consensus pointing to a 0.1% employment rise and a 5.4% jobless rate. Australia follows with the Ai Group Industry Index at 19:00 the same day. Trade balance figures for Australia are due at 21:30 on 5 August, with markets expecting a narrowing to -1.1 billion Australian dollars.

These releases will provide fresh signals on labour-market resilience in New Zealand and external demand for Australian goods. China stimulus expectations remain the key external variable shaping sentiment ahead of the prints. Markets will watch whether the NZ data confirm the expected softening in employment conditions that aligns with the RBNZ’s current easing trajectory.

Other Economic Notes

Australia’s commodity-export model continues to benefit from selective Chinese demand strength even as broader manufacturing indicators soften. New Zealand’s dairy and tourism sectors face headwinds from softer domestic retail sales reported earlier, keeping the current-account gap in focus. Housing-market linkages remain critical for both central banks given elevated household debt levels and the transmission of policy rates into mortgage costs.

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Trade-weighted indices for the Australian dollar have responded directly to iron-ore and gold price moves, underscoring the economy’s external sensitivity. Selective strength in Chinese steel output has supported iron-ore prices and, by extension, Australian export revenues despite the softer manufacturing PMI print.

Global Macro News

China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 in July, missing forecasts and weighing on AUD and NZD sentiment despite the Australian dollar’s relative resilience. Japanese policy signals have triggered cross-currency flows that lifted the Australian dollar against the yen in recent sessions. US developments including the cancellation of planned Iran strikes supported risk assets and capped safe-haven demand for the US dollar.

Global central-bank speeches from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada highlighted ongoing caution around inflation persistence and supply shocks. European and Chinese policy statements continue to shape commodity-price expectations that directly feed into Australian and New Zealand export revenues. Bitcoin’s modest gain reflects broader risk-on flows that have also supported equity markets in the region.

ANZ Central Banks Watch

The RBA maintains the cash rate at 4.35% while Australia’s CPI stands at 3.75% year-over-year, leaving the committee focused on labour-market data and housing-market transmission before any further adjustment. The RBNZ has already moved the OCR down to 2.50%, reflecting a more aggressive easing path consistent with New Zealand’s 4.06% CPI reading and softer domestic demand indicators. Minutes from the RBA’s July meeting are expected to reinforce the higher-for-longer stance given resilient employment prints.

Markets continue to price a 25-basis-point RBNZ cut at the next review, highlighting the divergence in policy trajectories between the two inflation-targeting banks. Housing-market conditions in both countries remain sensitive to these rate paths, with mortgage-rate pass-through influencing household spending.

ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)