ANZ Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Australia Jobs Miss Eases RBA Pressure
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ASX 200 | 9,053.80 | -0.18% |
| NZX 50 | 13,919.82 | -0.07% |
| AUD/USD | 0.71 | +0.47% |
| NZD/USD | 0.59 | +1.21% |
| AUD/NZD | 1.21 | +0.17% |
| BHP | 65.75 | +3.20% |
| Gold | 4,587.30 | +2.18% |
| Brent Crude | 93.55 | +2.11% |
| Bitcoin | 72,657.97 | +4.90% |
| Australia 10Y Govt Yield | 4.83% | -3.03% |
| NZ Short-term Rate | 4.33% | -9.60% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 4.10 | - | 6 |
| Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 83.90 | - | 88.90 |
| Speech by RBA's Hauser | - | - | - |
| Employment Change | 80,300 | 15,000 | -15,800 |
| Full-Time Employment Change | 48,900 | - | 16,300 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.50 |
Australia Unemployment Rate | Type: macro_line | Unemployment Rate (%): 4.428 (2026-06-01) | Range: 3.437–5.238 | Trend(6pt): 4.706,3.517,4.091,4.078,4.371,4.428
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 20m | -175m | 14:45 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52 | - | 15:00 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 53.60 | - | 15:00 |
- Australian employment fell 15.8k in July, lifting unemployment to 4.5%.
- Westpac consumer confidence index rose to 88.9 from 83.9.
- AUD/USD advanced 0.47% to 0.71 while ASX 200 slipped 0.18%.
Yesterday's Recap
Australian July employment data missed expectations sharply, with a 15.8k decline against a 15k consensus forecast and unemployment rising to 4.5% from 4.4%. Full-time employment still added 16.3k, while Westpac consumer confidence jumped to 88.9 from 83.9. RBA Assistant Governor Hauser spoke on labour-market dynamics.
The ASX 200 eased 0.18% to 9,053.80 as BHP rose 3.20% on firmer iron-ore prices. Australian 10-year yields fell 3.03% to 4.83%. AUD/USD gained 0.47% to 0.71 and NZD/USD climbed 1.21% to 0.59 despite the soft Australian print.
NZX 50 edged 0.07% lower to 13,919.82. Westpac consumer confidence change printed at +6.0, signalling improved household sentiment even as headline jobs disappointed.
The Day Ahead
New Zealand will release its July trade balance at 14:45 ET, with consensus pointing to a NZ$175m deficit. Australia follows with S&P Global flash manufacturing and services PMI readings at 15:00 ET. Markets will assess whether services momentum holds above 53.6 and manufacturing stays above 52.0.
No major RBA or RBNZ speeches are scheduled. Commodity traders will monitor iron-ore and gold flows for AUD and NZD direction. The absence of tomorrow’s events allows focus on today’s PMI prints and any follow-through from yesterday’s labour data into currency and bond markets.
Other Economic Notes
Australia’s commodity export base remains the dominant growth channel, with BHP serving as the key bellwether for China demand. Gold at 4,587.30 and Brent crude at 93.55 both posted gains above 2%, supporting terms of trade. New Zealand’s dairy and tourism sectors continue to drive external balances, though construction activity stays sensitive to higher-for-longer rates.
China policy signals remain the largest external swing factor for both economies. The July jobs miss aligns with a gradual cooling that still leaves the labour market tighter than pre-pandemic norms, consistent with Australia CPI YoY at 3.75%.
