| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 7,710.54 | +1.76% |
| SET | 1,417.29 | +2.36% |
| KLCI | 1,713.20 | +0.88% |
| PSEi | 6,380.53 | +1.15% |
| STI | 4,846.56 | +0.70% |
| USD/IDR | 16,881.00 | -0.10% |
| USD/THB | 31.71 | +0.48% |
| USD/MYR | 3.94 | -0.09% |
| USD/PHP | 58.62 | +0.56% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | +0.27% |
| Brent Crude | 84.07 | +3.28% |
| Gold | 5,093.30 | -0.53% |
| Bitcoin | 71,256.67 | -2.00% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2 | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
ASEAN equities posted strong gains yesterday amid rising Brent crude prices tied to Middle East disruptions, with Thailand's SET surging 2.36% to 1,417.29, driven by tourism stocks buoyed by resilient visitor inflows despite geopolitical risks. Indonesia's JCI climbed 1.76% to 7,710.54, recovering from Fitch's outlook downgrade through commodity exporter boosts, though the rupiah edged up 0.10% with USD/IDR at 16,881.00. Malaysia's KLCI rose 0.88% to 1,713.20, supported by energy sectors as BNM held rates while highlighting intensified Middle East risks to growth.Philippines' PSEi advanced 1.15% to 6,380.53 following inflation data hitting 2.4% YoY exactly on consensus, easing pressure on remittances-dependent sectors amid USD/PHP weakening 0.56% to 58.62. Singapore's STI gained 0.70% to 4,846.56, with DBS analysis noting vulnerabilities to Middle East shocks in financial markets, as USD/SGD rose 0.27% to 1.28. Overall, FX moves were mixed, with THB and PHP depreciating against USD, reflecting capital flow sensitivities.
Today's ASEAN calendar is empty, providing a brief respite for markets to digest yesterday's Philippines inflation print and ongoing Middle East developments. Investors will monitor any updates on Indonesia's State Finance Law revisions, which could influence BI's FX interventions and rupiah stability. Thailand's emergency meetings on oil reserves and transport fares may yield policy signals, potentially affecting BoT's inflation outlook.Malaysia could see further commentary from BNM on rate expectations, as fixed-income positioning builds for hikes amid robust growth. Singapore lacks scheduled events, but global oil volatility might prompt MAS band adjustments. Broader focus remains on commodity prices, with Brent's 3.28% jump to 84.07 yesterday underscoring energy import risks for net importers like Philippines and Thailand.
ASEAN economies continue navigating supply chain shifts from China-US tensions, with Vietnam emerging as a key manufacturing hub, attracting FDI in electronics. Indonesia's commodity-driven model faces headwinds from Fitch's downgrade, potentially raising borrowing costs and complicating fiscal management under the proposed State Finance Law. (cont...)
Thailand's tourism rebound supports growth but exposes vulnerabilities to Middle East-driven oil shocks, while Philippines' remittance reliance urges local job market strengthening as advised by former ADB executives.
Global markets reacted to heightened Middle East conflict, pushing Brent crude up 3.28% to 84.07, directly benefiting ASEAN commodity exporters like Indonesia but straining importers such as Thailand and Malaysia through elevated transport and food costs. Gold dipped 0.53% to 5,093.30 as safe-haven demand waned slightly, while Bitcoin fell 2.00% to 71,256.67 amid broader risk-off sentiment. South Korea's Kospi rebounded 10% in its best day since 2008, signaling Asia-Pacific recovery potential that could spill over to ASEAN trade partners via electronics and semiconductor chains.USMCA's strengthened North American integration, as per Brookings analysis, highlights evolving ties to East Asia, potentially accelerating ASEAN's role in diversified supply chains away from China. Tech industry concerns over supply chain risks, including AI firms like Anthropic, underscore vulnerabilities in Singapore's financial hub status. Overall, Fed rate uncertainty lingers, with ASEAN currencies sensitive to USD strength, as seen in mixed FX moves yesterday.These dynamics amplify policy divergences, with commodity price swings exacerbating inflation pressures in energy-dependent economies.
Bank Indonesia faces increased scrutiny after Fitch's negative outlook revision, likely prompting aggressive rupiah defense through FX interventions, with reserves adequate but policy predictability reduced by fiscal law changes. Bank of Thailand monitors inflation risks from Middle East oil disruptions, with the governor noting potential 0.2% GDP drag but affirming strong external positions to handle volatility, maintaining a hold stance amid fiscal deficit concerns. Bank Negara Malaysia held its benchmark rate unchanged, warning of intensified downside risks from the conflict, while market expectations build for hikes over the next 12 months given near-fastest growth in years.Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas benefits from inflation aligning at 2.4% YoY, supporting a steady policy amid calls to bolster local jobs and reduce remittance reliance vulnerable to Middle East instability. Monetary Authority of Singapore, using NEER bands, may tolerate slight SGD depreciation as seen in USD/SGD's 0.27% rise, focusing on trade-weighted stability to counter imported inflation. State Bank of Vietnam prioritizes reserve adequacy and capital flow management, eyeing export recovery in manufacturing amid global shifts, with policy divergences evident as BI leans hawkish on FX while MAS emphasizes exchange rate tools over rates.