ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BI Holds Steady, MY CPI Eases
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 7,106.84 | +1.20% |
| SET | 1,417.45 | -1.62% |
| KLCI | 1,720.71 | -0.53% |
| PSEi | 6,018.62 | -0.61% |
| STI | 4,967.61 | -0.69% |
| USD/IDR | 16,977.00 | +0.03% |
| USD/THB | 32.46 | +0.43% |
| USD/MYR | 3.94 | +0.34% |
| USD/PHP | 59.73 | +0.83% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | +0.02% |
| Brent Crude | 103.02 | -4.06% |
| Gold | 4,651.90 | -4.87% |
| Bitcoin | 70,326.50 | -1.29% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.10 | - | 0.20 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
Indonesia Policy Rate Stability | Type: macro_line | Indonesia Central Bank Rate: 3.96 (2026-02-01) | Range: 2.79–6.3 | Trend(6pt): 2.79,2.79,5.62,6.17,4.13,3.96
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Bank Indonesia kept its BI-Rate at 4.75% to shield the rupiah from global volatility, introducing tighter FX rules to curb speculation and outflows.
- Malaysia's February inflation softened to 1.4% YoY and 0.2% MoM, below previous levels, amid ringgit strength against the SGD.
- ASEAN stocks mixed: Indonesia's JCI rose 1.20%, bucking regional declines driven by USD gains and oil price drops.
Yesterday's Recap
Bank Indonesia held its BI-Rate steady at 4.75%, aligning with consensus, to defend the rupiah against global headwinds including Fed signals and geopolitical tensions, as reports noted tightened FX rules to rein in speculation and dollar outflows. Malaysia's February inflation data showed a 0.2% MoM rise and 1.4% YoY increase, below the prior 1.6% YoY, signaling easing price pressures despite Mideast conflict risks to oil. Indonesian stocks outperformed, with the JCI up 1.20% to 7,106.84, supported by BI's stability focus, while Thailand's SET dropped 1.62% to 1,417.45 amid forecasts of oil prices exceeding $100 impacting 2026 GDP by 0.2-0.7%.
Malaysia's KLCI fell 0.53% to 1,720.71, balancing inflation relief with USD strength, and the Philippines' PSEi declined 0.61% to 6,018.62 as currency depreciation weighed on remittance sectors. Singapore's STI slipped 0.69% to 4,967.61, pressured by export sensitivities. Currencies mostly weakened against the USD: USD/IDR edged up 0.03% to 16,977.00 despite BI measures, USD/THB rose 0.43% to 32.46, USD/MYR increased 0.34% to 3.94, USD/PHP climbed 0.83% to 59.73, and USD/SGD ticked up 0.02% to 1.28.
Brent crude fell 4.06% to $103.02, gold dropped 4.87% to $4,651.90, and Bitcoin declined 1.29% to $70,326.50, reflecting risk-off sentiment.
The Day Ahead
No major economic releases are scheduled today across ASEAN markets, providing space to absorb yesterday's BI decision and Malaysian inflation data. Focus may turn to global developments, such as Mideast conflicts potentially driving oil volatility, influencing regional inflation and growth outlooks. Tomorrow's calendar is also empty, which could result in subdued trading amid reports of holiday-thinned liquidity affecting currencies like the rupiah.
Investors will watch FX dynamics, especially for signs of central bank interventions in pairs like USD/IDR and USD/MYR, alongside any US data or Fed remarks that could spill over to ASEAN flows.
Other Economic Notes
ASEAN economies are advancing supply chain shifts, with Malaysia and Vietnam attracting FDI in electronics and semiconductors via "China+1" strategies amid global slowdowns. Elevated oil prices, already above $100 for Brent, threaten net importers like Thailand, with projections of 0.2-0.7% GDP cuts in 2026 from further spikes. (cont...)
