Rupiah Pressured by Iran Tensions

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
JCI	7,302.12	+2.75%
SET	1,457.91	+3.37%
KLCI	1,716.68	+0.46%
PSEi	6,044.17	+1.82%
STI	4,904.54	+0.87%
USD/IDR	16,900.00	+0.21%
USD/THB	32.42	+0.03%
USD/MYR	3.96	+1.01%
USD/PHP	60.06	+0.88%
USD/SGD	1.28	+0.43%
Brent Crude	98.05	-6.16%
Gold	4,503.30	+2.36%
Bitcoin	71,065.22	+0.78%
Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Thailand 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Indonesian rupiah weakens toward Rp20,000 amid Middle East conflict, despite BI's hawkish stance extending tight policy through 2026.
ASEAN equities rally, led by Thailand's SET (+3.37%) and Indonesia's JCI (+2.75%), as oil prices drop 6.16% on ceasefire hopes.
Regional currencies mixed versus USD, with MYR weakening 1.01% and PHP down 0.88%, amid global risk-off sentiment.

Yesterday's Recap

ASEAN markets showed resilience with equities broadly advancing despite geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict. Indonesia's JCI climbed 2.75% to 7,302.12, supported by gains in commodity-linked stocks as Brent crude fell 6.16% to 98.05, easing inflation fears, though the rupiah weakened 0.21% to 16,900.00 versus USD amid warnings of potential slides to Rp20,000. Thailand's SET surged 3.37% to 1,457.91, buoyed by strong import data on gold shipments and plans for a $3.4 billion mall expansion by Central Pattana, signaling consumer sector optimism.

Malaysia's KLCI rose 0.46% to 1,716.68, aided by surging local currency trade with China, Thailand, and Indonesia reaching RM82.1 billion. Philippines' PSEi gained 1.82% to 6,044.17, while Singapore's STI advanced 0.87% to 4,904.54. Currencies faced pressure, with USD/MYR up 1.01% to 3.96 and USD/PHP rising 0.88% to 60.06, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.

The Day Ahead

The ASEAN calendar remains light with no major data releases scheduled, allowing markets to digest recent geopolitical developments and oil price volatility. Investors will monitor any updates on Iran-US ceasefire prospects, which could influence commodity-driven economies like Indonesia and Malaysia. Thailand may see focus on export figures following yesterday's import surge, potentially impacting BoT's policy outlook.

Philippines and Singapore could track remittance and trade data previews, while Vietnam's manufacturing updates might emerge informally. Overall, attention turns to global cues, including any ECB or BoC statements on energy shocks.

Other Economic Notes

Broader ASEAN themes highlight vulnerability to Middle East disruptions, with Indonesia's $150 billion reserves offering a buffer but debt reliance exposing the rupiah to further risks. Supply chain shifts continue, as seen in Malaysia's RM82.1 billion local currency settlements with key partners, reducing USD dependence amid US-China tensions. Tourism and manufacturing resilience persists in Thailand and Vietnam, though global slowdown signals from Europe and Canada could curb FDI inflows.

Thailand's imports surged on gold shipments, outpacing exports even before Middle East disruptions, while oil price tests add fiscal strains.

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Global Macro News

The Iran conflict is already dampening global growth, with surveys showing hits to major economies like Finland and the Netherlands through energy shocks and trade disruptions. European Central Bank warnings highlight risks of reignited inflation from a new energy crisis, potentially slowing eurozone activity and affecting ASEAN exports. Bank of Canada held rates while noting heightened global risks, which could lead to cautious signaling impacting Asian capital flows.

Saudi Central Bank's payment oversight updates signal tighter Gulf regulations, possibly influencing oil supply dynamics for net importers like Thailand and Philippines. Nigeria's ICPC flagged money laundering threats to economy and security, underscoring global illicit flow risks that could spill into ASEAN financial hubs like Singapore. Overall, these developments foster risk-off sentiment, driving gold up 2.36% to 4,503.30 and bitcoin 0.78% to 71,065.22 as safe havens.

ASEAN Central Banks Watch

Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained its hawkish hold, extending tight monetary policy through 2026 to combat inflation and defend the rupiah, which faces risks of weakening to Rp20,000 amid Iran tensions and Hormuz closure fears; BI's aggressive FX interventions remain key, backed by ample reserves. Bank of Thailand (BoT) monitors import surges and fiscal strains from oil prices, having abandoned diesel price caps, which may prompt steady rates to balance growth and baht stability at USD/THB 32.42. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) benefits from robust local currency trade but contends with MYR weakness at 3.96 versus USD, likely holding rates amid export resilience in semiconductors.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) watches PHP depreciation to 60.06, with inflation dynamics supporting potential easing if remittance inflows hold. Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) manages its unique NEER bands for the SGD at 1.28 versus USD, focusing on exchange rate appreciation to curb imported inflation without interest rate tools. State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) emphasizes reserve adequacy and capital flow management to stabilize the dong, amid strong manufacturing FDI, highlighting policy divergences where BI leads in aggressiveness while MAS prioritizes FX bands.

ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)