BI Holds as Rupiah Faces Pressure

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
JCI	7,164.09	-1.89%
SET	1,442.92	-1.03%
KLCI	1,710.89	-0.34%
PSEi	5,984.20	-0.99%
STI	4,887.76	-0.34%
USD/IDR	16,898.00	+0.60%
USD/THB	32.63	+0.49%
USD/MYR	3.99	+0.96%
USD/PHP	60.14	+0.20%
USD/SGD	1.29	+0.62%
Brent Crude	101.26	-0.94%
Gold	4,376.90	-3.80%
Bitcoin	68,978.35	-3.27%
Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Thailand 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Central Bank Interest Rate Decision	4.25	-	4.25

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Bank Indonesia held rates at 4.75% amid global war risks, while Philippines' BSP maintained 4.25% to support growth.
ASEAN equities fell 0.3-1.9%, with currencies weakening 0.2-1.0% vs USD on profit-taking and oil volatility.
News highlighted rupiah risks to 20,000/USD, driven by Middle East tensions and inflation fears.

Yesterday's Recap

ASEAN markets retreated yesterday amid profit-taking and global caution, with Indonesia's JCI dropping 1.89% to 7,164.09 as rupiah concerns dominated headlines. The Philippines' BSP held its key rate steady at 4.25%, aligning with consensus to balance inflation and growth amid an energy crisis declaration. Thailand's SET fell 1.03% to 1,442.92, pressured by fiscal strains from oil prices forcing an end to diesel caps.

Malaysia's KLCI edged down 0.34% to 1,710.89, though HSBC projected solid 2026 growth despite Middle East war risks. Singapore's STI dipped 0.34% to 4,887.76, reflecting broader regional caution. The Philippines' PSEi declined 0.99% to 5,984.20 on energy concerns.

Currencies weakened against the USD, led by USD/MYR up 0.96% to 3.99 and USD/IDR rising 0.60% to 16,898.00, reflecting capital outflows and commodity price swings, while Brent crude slipped 0.94% to 101.26. Gold fell 3.80% to 4,376.90, and Bitcoin dropped 3.27% to 68,978.35.

The Day Ahead

With no major data releases scheduled for today, markets will focus on ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly Middle East tensions influencing oil prices and ASEAN energy security. Traders may monitor Indonesia's rupiah movements, as forecasts suggest potential weakening near 16,932/USD amid sentiment triggers. Attention could shift to broader regional themes like Malaysia's economic resilience and Thailand's fiscal adjustments post-price cap removal.

Vietnam's manufacturing strength may draw FDI interest in a quiet session. Singapore, as the financial hub, might see flows tied to global risk appetite. Overall, expect subdued trading unless fresh global headlines emerge.

Other Economic Notes

Broader ASEAN themes underscore resilience amid external shocks, with Indonesia extending tax filing deadlines to April 30 to ease administrative burdens during cautious reopening. Oil-driven inflation risks are stymieing Indonesia's bond market boom, while the Philippines grapples with an energy crisis, prompting Indonesia to assure its own supplies remain secure. Structural shifts persist, as Malaysia benefits from positive growth outlooks and Thailand expands retail infrastructure with Central Pattana's $3.4 billion investment plan.

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

These developments highlight ASEAN's navigation of geopolitical strains, with rupiah stability in focus amid forecasts of weakening to 20,000/USD due to Middle East sentiments and oil triggers.

Global Macro News

Global macro context remains challenging for ASEAN, with the Bank of Canada holding rates while warning of heightened economic risks from geopolitical tensions. The UK faces criticism that Bank of England hikes won't counter "Trumpflation," potentially damaging growth and spilling over to ASEAN trade partners. Europe's ECB cautions that a new energy shock could reignite inflation and slow eurozone activity, impacting ASEAN exports to the region.

In Asia, the Bank of Korea highlights risks of inflation and sluggish growth due to Middle East conflicts, echoing pressures on ASEAN commodity importers like Thailand and Malaysia. Australia's RBA is accused of stifling the economy with tight policy, which could weaken demand for ASEAN goods. Oil prices are testing fiscal limits worldwide, as seen in Thailand's diesel cap abandonment, amid surging crude tied to Middle East strife.

Overall, these dynamics amplify ASEAN vulnerabilities to energy costs and capital flow volatility.

ASEAN Central Banks Watch

Bank Indonesia (BI) held its key rate at 4.75% to defend the rupiah amid deteriorating global conditions from war, focusing on FX stability with potential interventions as reserves remain adequate despite capital outflow risks. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) maintained its rate at 4.25% yesterday, prioritizing growth support in a remittance-dependent economy facing energy shortages, with inflation dynamics allowing policy patience. Bank of Thailand (BoT) grapples with fiscal pressures from oil, potentially limiting rate flexibility, while emphasizing reserve adequacy to manage THB volatility.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) eyes solid growth projections for 2026, with policy divergences emerging as it balances inflation from Middle East risks against manufacturing strength. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) continues to rely on exchange rate bands via the NEER for policy transmission, tightening bands if needed to counter imported inflation without direct rate tools. Vietnam's State Bank (SBV) focuses on FX intervention to stabilize the dong amid rapid manufacturing growth, with capital flow management key to handling FDI inflows.

Policy divergences are evident, with BI often the most aggressive on currency defense, while MAS's unique framework provides flexibility in a financial hub context.

ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)