ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BI Holds Steady Amid Oil Shock
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 7,091.67 | -0.08% |
| SET | 1,449.62 | +0.18% |
| KLCI | 1,687.90 | -1.45% |
| PSEi | 5,869.49 | -1.73% |
| STI | 4,897.26 | -0.02% |
| USD/IDR | 16,994.00 | +0.11% |
| USD/THB | 32.55 | -0.91% |
| USD/MYR | 4.05 | +0.40% |
| USD/PHP | 60.69 | +0.29% |
| USD/SGD | 1.29 | -0.31% |
| Brent Crude | 103.28 | -8.42% |
| Gold | 4,699.60 | +3.84% |
| Bitcoin | 68,168.53 | +2.21% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Brent Oil Prices | Type: macro_line | Brent Crude: 103.8 (2026-03-23) | Range: 59.93–133.2 | Trend(5pt): 63.85,119.8,96.64,72.12,103.8
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.76 | - | 20:00 |
| Trade Balance | 960m | - | 20:00 |
| Wednesday (2026-04-01) | |||
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.76 | - | 20:00 |
| Trade Balance | 960m | - | 20:00 |
- Indonesia's BI holds rates, drops cut signals amid Rupiah pressures and Middle East conflict driving oil volatility.
- ASEAN equities mixed; sharp drops in Malaysia's KLCI and Philippines' PSEi reflect risk-off mood from geopolitical tensions.
- Regional FX weakens vs USD except THB; Brent falls but gold surges as safe-haven amid inflation fears.
Yesterday's Recap
ASEAN equities closed mixed on March 30, with Indonesia's JCI dipping 0.08% to 7,091.67 amid cautious trading ahead of inflation data, while Thailand's SET rose 0.18% to 1,449.62 supported by tourism recovery signals. Malaysia's KLCI fell 1.45% to 1,687.90, pressured by warnings from BNM on heightened Middle East risks impacting fuel costs. The Philippines' PSEi declined 1.73% to 5,869.49 as the peso hit near-record lows, exacerbating concerns over remittance-dependent growth.
Singapore's STI edged down 0.02% to 4,897.26, reflecting stability in the financial hub despite global volatility. FX markets saw USD/IDR rise 0.11% to 16,994.00, with BI signaling defenses against depreciation; USD/THB fell 0.91% to 32.55, aided by export resilience; USD/MYR up 0.40% to 4.05; USD/PHP up 0.29% to 60.69; USD/SGD down 0.31% to 1.29. Brent crude dropped 8.42% to 103.28, offering temporary relief from recent surges, but gold surged 3.84% to 4,699.60 as a safe haven.
Bitcoin rose 2.21% to 68,168.53. No major data releases occurred, but news of UN peacekeeper deaths in Lebanon, including Indonesians, heightened geopolitical tensions affecting regional sentiment.
The Day Ahead
Investors eye Indonesia's March inflation rate year-over-year at 20:00 ET, with previous at 4.76%, potentially influencing BI's stance amid Rupiah volatility. Indonesia's trade balance data, previous at 960 million USD, will also release simultaneously, providing insights into commodity export strength amid oil price swings. On April 1, these Indonesian indicators appear again in the calendar, possibly indicating data revisions or extended reporting periods.
Broader ASEAN events remain light, but Singapore may reassess GDP forecasts if Middle East disruptions persist, as noted by DPM Gan Kim Yong. Philippines' House hearings on crisis response begin April 8, though immediate impacts are limited.
Other Economic Notes
The Middle East conflict poses existential threats to ASEAN economies via the Strait of Hormuz, critical for Asia's oil imports, with potential supply disruptions fueling inflation and straining government budgets. China's investment flows favor ASEAN neighbors like Vietnam over the Philippines, highlighting divergences in attracting FDI amid global supply chain shifts. Tourism in Thailand rebounds but faces headwinds from higher fuel costs after subsidies were slashed, leading to a 22% price jump.
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