Rupiah Weakens Amid Growth Cuts

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
JCI	7,458.50	+2.07%
SET	1,506.84	+1.15%
KLCI	1,691.31	+0.30%
PSEi	6,098.21	+0.14%
STI	4,989.41	+0.25%
USD/IDR	17,090.00	+0.18%
USD/THB	31.98	-0.28%
USD/MYR	3.96	-0.45%
USD/PHP	59.97	+0.53%
USD/SGD	1.27	+0.00%
Brent Crude	95.20	-0.75%
Gold	4,761.90	-0.63%
Bitcoin	73,671.12	+0.95%
Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Thailand 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate	2.10	-	20:00
Inflation Rate Month-over-Month	0.20	-	00:00
Inflation Rate Year-over-Year	1.40	-	00:00

Indonesian rupiah slid to 17,090/USD, pressuring BI to tighten USD access as consumer confidence dipped and job availability declined.
ASEAN equities rose modestly, led by Indonesia's JCI (+2.07%) on commodity strength, while Thailand's SET gained 1.15% despite economic warnings.
Malaysia's growth outlook upgraded to 4.6% by ADB, contrasting World Bank's 4.7% cut for Indonesia amid oil shocks and wage stagnation.

Yesterday's Recap

ASEAN markets showed resilience yesterday with equities advancing across the board, driven by commodity gains in Indonesia where the JCI climbed 2.07% to 7,458.50 amid rupiah weakness to 17,090/USD (+0.18%). Thailand's SET rose 1.15% to 1,506.84, buoyed by potential investment reforms despite finance minister warnings of limited economic options and high diesel costs impacting fishing. Malaysia's KLCI edged up 0.30% to 1,691.31, supported by positive growth projections from the Asian Development Bank at 4.6% for 2026.

The Philippines' PSEi increased 0.14% to 6,098.21, though oil shock risks were highlighted as deepening economic vulnerabilities. Singapore's STI gained 0.25% to 4,989.41, with flat USD/SGD at 1.27 reflecting stable financial hub dynamics. Vietnam was not prominently featured in moves, but regional FX pressures saw USD/THB dip 0.28% to 31.98 and USD/MYR fall 0.45% to 3.96, contrasting USD/PHP's 0.53% rise to 59.97.

No major data releases occurred, but news focused on Indonesia's declining job index and rupiah impacts on households.

The Day Ahead

Upcoming ASEAN events include Singapore's advance GDP growth estimate for Q1, set for release on April 13 at 20:00 ET, with previous quarter-over-quarter at 2.1% and no consensus yet, potentially influencing MAS exchange rate policy. Malaysia's inflation data follows on April 17 at 00:00 ET, covering month-over-month (previous 0.2%) and year-over-year (previous 1.4%) figures, which could affect BNM's rate stance amid wage stagnation concerns. No immediate releases today or tomorrow, allowing markets to digest recent rupiah pressures and global oil dynamics.

Investors will watch for any BI interventions on USD/IDR, given ongoing currency weakness. Thailand may see focus on finance ministry statements regarding energy crisis reforms. Overall, the light calendar shifts attention to broader themes like FDI flows and commodity prices.

Other Economic Notes

Broader ASEAN themes highlight supply chain shifts, with Vietnam benefiting from electronics FDI amid US-China rerouting, while Indonesia faces commodity export volatility offset by nickel demand. (cont...)

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Wage stagnation in Malaysia and declining job availability in Indonesia underscore labor market challenges, compounded by oil shocks affecting Thailand's fishing and tourism sectors. Positive notes include Malaysia's investment-driven growth outlook and Philippines' remittance resilience, though global energy crises pose risks to regional recovery.

Global Macro News

Global macro context weighs on ASEAN with Brent crude dipping 0.75% to 95.20 amid Middle East tensions, exacerbating oil shocks that threaten Thailand's fishing industry and the Philippines' economy, as warned by local reports. Gold fell 0.63% to 4,761.90, reducing safe-haven appeal, while Bitcoin rose 0.95% to 73,671.12 on ETF inflows, potentially boosting Singapore's fintech sector. The Bank of England highlighted risks of a 2008-style crash due to Iran conflicts, which could spill over to ASEAN via capital outflows and tighter lending.

World Bank and IMF meetings are under scrutiny for rescuing the global economy, relevant for ASEAN's trade-dependent growth amid downgraded Indonesian forecasts to 4.7%. US dollar strength persists, pressuring emerging market currencies like the rupiah and peso. Overall, these factors amplify ASEAN vulnerabilities to energy costs and geopolitical instability, with potential for increased FDI rerouting from China.

ASEAN Central Banks Watch

Bank Indonesia (BI) faces mounting pressure on rupiah defense, tightening USD access as the currency hit 17,090/USD, with surveys showing declining consumer confidence and job availability; BI's independence is questioned amid calls for short-term strengthening measures, though reserves remain adequate for interventions. Bank of Thailand (BoT) contends with limited policy options as the finance minister warns of economic constraints, potentially holding rates steady while monitoring THB appreciation to 31.98/USD and tourism recovery. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) benefits from upgraded 4.6% growth outlooks, likely maintaining rates to support domestic demand and investment, with MYR strengthening to 3.96/USD amid stagnant wages.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) navigates oil shock risks deepening economic slowdowns, with PHP weakening to 59.97/USD possibly prompting vigilance on inflation and remittances. Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) relies on its NEER exchange rate bands for policy, holding SGD steady at 1.27/USD to balance financial hub stability and export competitiveness. State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) focuses on dong stability amid strong FDI inflows, diverging from BI's aggressive FX interventions by emphasizing reserve adequacy and manufacturing growth.

Policy divergences persist, with BI most hawkish on currency defense, while MAS and SBV prioritize exchange rate and capital flow management over rate adjustments.

ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)