ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
SG GDP Beats, Rupiah Pressured
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 7,675.95 | +2.34% |
| SET | 1,506.84 | +1.15% |
| KLCI | 1,688.12 | +0.45% |
| PSEi | 6,013.10 | -0.68% |
| STI | 5,007.57 | +0.47% |
| USD/IDR | 17,136.00 | +0.33% |
| USD/THB | 31.98 | -0.09% |
| USD/MYR | 3.95 | -0.58% |
| USD/PHP | 60.03 | -0.11% |
| USD/SGD | 1.27 | -0.08% |
| Brent Crude | 94.93 | +0.15% |
| Gold | 4,813.90 | -0.23% |
| Bitcoin | 74,939.83 | +1.02% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate | 1.30 | -0.50 | -0.30 |
Indonesia Rupiah USDIDR | Type: market_hloc | USD/IDR Rate: 1.714e+04 (2026-04-15) | Range: 1.667e+04–1.714e+04 | Trend(5pt): 1.685e+04,1.688e+04,1.68e+04,1.687e+04,1.714e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | - | 20:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.40 | 1.70 | 20:00 |
- Singapore's Q1 GDP advance estimate contracted -0.3% QoQ, beating consensus of -0.5%, amid global slowdown but resilient services.
- Indonesian rupiah weakened to 17,136/USD with +0.33% daily change, sparking 1998 crisis fears, though BI reassures policy stability.
- ASEAN equities mixed: JCI +2.34% on commodity optimism, PSEi -0.68% on remittance worries, amid stable Brent at $94.93.
Yesterday's Recap
Singapore released its Q1 GDP advance estimate, showing a -0.3% QoQ contraction that outperformed consensus expectations of -0.5%, reflecting resilience in financial services despite trade headwinds, though it slowed from the previous 1.3% growth. Indonesia dominated headlines as the rupiah hit near-historic lows at 17,136 per USD, up 0.33% on the day, fueled by geopolitical tensions including US blockade threats in the Gulf of Oman, prompting BI to emphasize policy stability to global investors. Market moves were positive for most ASEAN equities, with Indonesia's JCI surging 2.34% to 7,675.95 on nickel and commodity export strength, while Thailand's SET rose 1.15% to 1,506.84 supported by manufacturing recovery signals.
Malaysia's KLCI gained 0.45% to 1,688.12 amid resilient economic outlooks from IMF upgrades, but the Philippines' PSEi dipped 0.68% to 6,013.10 on remittance concerns. Singapore's STI edged up 0.47% to 5,007.57, aligning with the better-than-expected GDP data. Currencies broadly weakened against the USD, with USD/MYR down 0.58% to 3.95 benefiting from oil stability, while Vietnam saw implicit dong pressures from regional unrest though specific data was absent.
Overall, Brent crude held steady at $94.93 with a 0.15% gain, influencing commodity-driven economies like Indonesia and Malaysia.
The Day Ahead
Malaysia's inflation data headlines the calendar, with March YoY rate consensus at 1.7% versus previous 1.4%, potentially signaling persistent price pressures from energy costs amid global crises. The MoM figure lacks consensus but follows 0.2% prior, offering insights into domestic demand resilience in a manufacturing-heavy economy. No major events are scheduled for other ASEAN nations, allowing focus on Malaysia's releases at 20:00 ET, which could influence BNM's policy stance.
Investors will monitor any spillover from Indonesia's rupiah volatility, especially with BI's recent reassurances. Broader attention may turn to global cues, but ASEAN-specific catalysts remain light. Expect quiet trading unless unexpected FX interventions emerge from SBV or others.
Other Economic Notes
Indonesia's external debt climbed to $437.9 billion in February, raising sustainability concerns amid rupiah depreciation, though local currency transaction volumes jumped 163% as BI pushes settlements to reduce USD reliance. (cont...)
