ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Rupiah Hits Lows, SG GDP Beats
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 7,623.59 | -0.68% |
| SET | 1,506.84 | +1.15% |
| KLCI | 1,683.42 | -0.28% |
| PSEi | 6,063.35 | +0.84% |
| STI | 5,021.20 | +0.27% |
| USD/IDR | 17,137.00 | +0.05% |
| USD/THB | 31.98 | +0.00% |
| USD/MYR | 3.95 | +0.24% |
| USD/PHP | 59.94 | +0.40% |
| USD/SGD | 1.27 | +0.10% |
| Brent Crude | 98.01 | +3.24% |
| Gold | 4,810.90 | +0.23% |
| Bitcoin | 75,126.38 | +0.43% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate | 1.30 | -0.50 | -0.30 |
Brent Crude Oil | Type: market_hloc | Brent: 98.2 (2026-04-16) | Range: 64.06–118.3 | Trend(6pt): 64.13,69.04,81.4,104.5,94.93,98.2
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | - | 20:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.40 | 1.70 | 20:00 |
| Friday (2026-04-17) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | - | 20:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.40 | 1.70 | 20:00 |
- Singapore's Q1 GDP advance estimate contracted -0.3% QoQ, milder than consensus -0.5%, amid manufacturing and export slowdowns.
- Indonesian rupiah slid to record lows versus SGD, sparking trade and tourism worries, while BI stressed policy stability despite rising external debt.
- Thai assets rose amid currency stability talks, but growth cuts due to Iran war and energy shocks prompted foreign investor outflows.
Yesterday's Recap
Singapore's Q1 GDP advance estimate showed a -0.3% QoQ contraction, outperforming consensus of -0.5% but down from prior 1.3%, reflecting manufacturing weakness and export drags in the trade-dependent economy. Indonesia's JCI fell 0.68% to 7,623.59, weighed by rupiah depreciation to 17,137 against USD (+0.05%), with reports noting record lows versus SGD and external debt at Rp7,488 trillion. Thailand's SET climbed 1.15% to 1,506.84, buoyed by currency stability discussions despite growth downgrades from regional unrest.
Malaysia's KLCI slipped 0.28% to 1,683.42, with USD/MYR up 0.24% to 3.95 amid commodity fluctuations. Philippines' PSEi rose 0.84% to 6,063.35, supported by remittance flows despite USD/PHP gaining 0.40% to 59.94. Singapore's STI added 0.27% to 5,021.20, aided by the GDP surprise, though ASEAN currencies broadly weakened against a firm USD.
The Day Ahead
Malaysia's inflation releases lead today's agenda, with YoY CPI consensus at 1.7% (prior 1.4%) and MoM at 0.2% prior (no consensus), due at 20:00 ET, which may shape BNM's policy amid ringgit stablecoin trials. Tomorrow mirrors today's Malaysian inflation data, providing potential volatility if figures surprise. No key events for Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, or Vietnam, shifting attention to global drivers like oil movements.
Monitor BI for rupiah intervention signals after recent weakness.
Other Economic Notes
ASEAN dynamics feature supply chain realignments, with Vietnam gaining from FDI in electronics amid US-China tensions, contrasting Indonesia's commodity export strength against debt pressures. Thailand grapples with tourism and energy risks from Middle East conflicts, fueling capital exits, while Malaysia navigates inflation and FX stability. Philippines benefits from robust remittances, highlighting regional splits: commodity resilience in Indonesia versus financial vulnerabilities in Singapore.
Global Macro News
ASEAN faces escalating global pressures from the Iran war, pushing Brent crude up 3.24% to 98.01 and straining importers like Thailand and Malaysia amid Hormuz closure concerns. Bangkok Post notes foreign investors dumping Thai assets over energy shocks and dimmed recovery prospects, with Thailand rushing to secure oil and fertilizer supplies. (cont...)
