BI Holds, BSP Hikes Amid FX Pressures

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
JCI	7,541.61	-0.24%
SET	1,479.74	-0.25%
KLCI	1,710.39	-0.29%
PSEi	5,989.56	-0.48%
STI	5,002.72	-0.24%
USD/IDR	17,303.00	+0.99%
USD/THB	32.43	+0.78%
USD/MYR	3.96	+0.19%
USD/PHP	60.44	+0.57%
USD/SGD	1.28	+0.37%
Brent Crude	106.47	+4.47%
Gold	4,708.60	-0.51%
Bitcoin	78,058.00	-0.19%
Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Thailand 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
Central Bank Interest Rate Decision	4.75	4.75	4.75
Central Bank Interest Rate Decision	4.25	4.25	4.50

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Central Bank Interest Rate Decision	1	1	03:00

Bank Indonesia held rates at 4.75%, vowing more FX interventions to stabilize the rupiah amid global uncertainty and a slide to 17,303 against the USD.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised rates to 4.50% from 4.25%, citing inflation surges from war-driven oil shocks.
ASEAN equities dipped modestly, with currencies weakening versus a stronger USD, as Brent crude rose 4.47% to $106.47.

Yesterday's Recap

Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained its key rate at 4.75% as expected, focusing on rupiah stability amid its weakening to 17,303 per USD, up 0.99% on the day, with the central bank attributing the decline to global uncertainties and committing to increased market interventions. In the Philippines, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) unexpectedly hiked rates to 4.50% from 4.25% in response to inflation exceeding targets due to escalating Mideast tensions and oil price spikes, contributing to the PSEi falling 0.48% to 5,989.56. Indonesian stocks showed relative resilience, with the JCI down 0.24% to 7,541.61, aided by commodity exporters despite rupiah pressures, while Thailand's SET declined 0.25% to 1,479.74 on concerns over tourism vulnerability to global shocks.

Malaysia's KLCI slipped 0.29% to 1,710.39 amid palm oil price fluctuations, and Singapore's STI dropped 0.24% to 5,002.72 as a financial center sensitive to USD gains. The Philippine peso depreciated 0.57% to 60.44 per USD, aligning with broader ASEAN FX weakness, including USD/THB up 0.78% to 32.43, USD/MYR up 0.19% to 3.96, and USD/SGD up 0.37% to 1.28. Brent crude surged 4.47% to 106.47, heightening import costs for net oil importers like Indonesia and the Philippines.

No major data emerged from Vietnam, but its manufacturing sector continues to demonstrate resilience amid supply chain shifts.

The Day Ahead

Focus shifts to Thailand's Bank of Thailand (BoT) rate decision on April 29, with consensus anticipating a hold at 1.00%, though oil shocks may elicit hawkish comments on inflation and baht stability at 32.43 per USD. No key data releases are scheduled for today across ASEAN, enabling markets to process BI's hold and BSP's hike, with attention on potential Indonesian FX interventions as the rupiah weakens past 17,300. Singapore could feel indirect effects from global semiconductor trends, but lacks local events.

Investors may monitor for any unannounced updates from Vietnam's State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) on reserve strategies, though none are confirmed. Malaysia's Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) might issue statements on tokenization pilots for cross-border wholesale efficiencies.

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Other Economic Notes

ASEAN economies are under strain from global energy disruptions, with oil price increases burdening fiscal positions in import-reliant countries like Thailand and the Philippines, leading to budget adjustments to maintain deficit targets. Supply chain relocations favor Vietnam and Indonesia, with foreign direct investment bolstering manufacturing amid US-China frictions, though Red Sea issues limit Malaysian export growth. The remittance-dependent Philippine economy contends with war-related inflation spillovers, while Singapore's financial sector gains from safe-haven inflows but faces risks from USD strength.

Thailand's vulnerability to expanding conflict impacts underscores risks to tourism and exports, highlighting the need for policy flexibility in the region.

Global Macro News

Heightened Mideast tensions propelled Brent crude to $106.47, up 4.47%, intensifying inflation threats for ASEAN oil importers while aiding Indonesian commodity sectors. Persistent US-China trade concerns are speeding supply chain moves to Vietnam and Malaysia, where electronics exports are expanding due to semiconductor needs. Broader geopolitical pressures, such as EU sanctions on Russian banks and Iran's conflict affecting German growth prospects, boost safe-haven demand for gold at $4,708.60, down 0.51%, indirectly benefiting Singapore as a financial hub.

Bitcoin remained stable at $78,058.00, down 0.19%, showing detachment from macro turbulence, though ASEAN authorities track related capital movements. Bangladesh encounters comparable energy challenges, illustrating shared vulnerabilities in South and Southeast Asia. Thailand's exposure to widening war effects emphasizes tourism and export hazards, while Malaysia's tokenization efforts aim to reduce cross-border frictions.

ASEAN Central Banks Watch

Bank Indonesia (BI) held rates at 4.75% yesterday, emphasizing rupiah support via heightened FX interventions and new rules that lowered dollar trading, as the currency hit lows beyond 17,300 from oil pressures; BI's proactive approach differs from peers, backed by sufficient reserves. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) increased rates to 4.50%, adopting a tightening stance as war-fueled shocks pushed inflation above targets, contrasting prior easing outlooks in a remittance-focused economy. Bank of Thailand (BoT) meets next week, expected to keep rates at 1.00% while addressing baht depreciation at 32.43 per USD and tourism risks, prioritizing growth amid fiscal constraints.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) stays on hold following a recent rate cut, its first in five years, focusing on initiatives like tokenization to address wholesale cross-border issues, with MYR at 3.96 per USD displaying comparative strength. (cont...)

Continuation

ASEAN Central Banks Watch (continued)

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) upholds its exchange rate policy through the NEER, eschewing interest rates, to control inflation and SGD at 1.28 per USD amid international flows. Vietnam's State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) prioritizes reserve building and controls for VND stability, gaining from manufacturing FDI, though less aggressive in interventions than BI. Divergences continue, with BI and BSP hawkish on inflation, versus BoT and BNM's growth emphasis.

ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)