BI Vows to Defend Rupiah, Thai Exports Boom

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
JCI	7,129.49	-3.38%
SET	1,456.10	-0.36%
KLCI	1,720.34	-0.08%
PSEi	5,943.49	-0.67%
STI	4,922.86	-0.43%
USD/IDR	17,222.00	-0.62%
USD/THB	32.31	-0.52%
USD/MYR	3.95	-0.28%
USD/PHP	60.69	+0.41%
USD/SGD	1.27	-0.31%
Brent Crude	101.91	-3.25%
Gold	4,697.70	-0.52%
Bitcoin	76,865.00	-2.28%
Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Thailand 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
Central Bank Interest Rate Decision	1	1	23:00

Bank Indonesia commits to intensified interventions to stabilize undervalued rupiah, blaming global factors amid stable domestic economy and low recession risk.
Thailand's March exports surge 18.7% YoY to record $35.16B, driven by US demand and manufacturing resilience, though baht weakens on oil shocks.
ASEAN equities fell amid risk-off mood, with JCI down 3.38%; regional currencies mostly gained vs USD except PHP, as Brent crude dropped 3.25%.

Yesterday's Recap

ASEAN markets ended lower on April 26 amid global caution, with Indonesia's JCI tumbling 3.38% to 7,129.49, hit by rupiah volatility, Fitch downgrades of four banks, and external pressures despite ministers affirming economic stability and recession risk below 5%. Thailand's SET slipped 0.36% to 1,456.10, offsetting positive March export growth of 18.7% YoY to $35.16B, led by 41.8% surge to US on tariff rulings and EV demand, plus car production up 2.69% YoY to 133,413 units. Malaysia's KLCI eased 0.08% to 1,720.34, with ringgit slightly weaker on geopolitical tensions.

Philippines' PSEi dropped 0.67% to 5,943.49 as USD/PHP rose 0.41% to 60.69, reflecting dollar strength. Singapore's STI fell 0.43% to 4,922.86, mirroring regional wariness. Currencies mostly strengthened vs USD: USD/IDR down 0.62% to 17,222.00 after BI's hawkish intervention pledge, USD/THB down 0.52% to 32.31 despite oil pressures, USD/MYR down 0.28% to 3.95, and USD/SGD down 0.31% to 1.27.

Brent crude declined 3.25% to $101.91, easing supply fears but pressuring energy importers like Thailand. Gold dipped 0.52% to $4,697.70, and Bitcoin fell 2.28% to $76,865.00. No major data releases occurred, but focus remained on Indonesia's rupiah defense and Thailand's trade momentum.

The Day Ahead

Markets eye Thailand's central bank rate decision on April 28, with consensus for holding at 1% amid baht weakness from rising energy costs and oil shocks linked to conflicts. No key ASEAN events are set for April 27, giving room to assess Indonesia's rupiah stabilization moves and Thailand's export strength. Investors may watch for Bank Indonesia updates on FX interventions, potentially swaying USD/IDR.

Malaysia could see commentary on institutional reforms and fuel subsidies, influencing ringgit outlook. Singapore's MAS might signal on exchange rate bands to counter imported inflation from global USD firmness. Vietnam's central bank could comment on reserves amid supply chain shifts, while Philippines monitors remittance flows for PHP support.

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Other Economic Notes

Indonesia's economy shows resilience against global uncertainties, with ministers highlighting robust fundamentals, nickel export growth, and recession risk under 5%, as rupiah weakness stems from external factors like USD strength rather than domestic issues. Thailand's trade reveals a widening deficit with China from import surges, balanced by strong US exports boosted by tariff dynamics and electronics demand, underscoring manufacturing recovery with car output rising. Malaysia's growth prospects rely on effective institutional delivery to attract FDI in sectors like electronics, amid regional decoupling from China.

ASEAN overall benefits from US-China supply chain shifts, with Thailand and Malaysia gaining in exports and investments, while rupiah and baht face volatility from energy prices and geopolitical risks.

Global Macro News

Global assets weakened as Brent crude slid 3.25% to $101.91 on reduced supply concerns, exacerbating baht pressures in Thailand from oil shocks tied to Iran conflicts and energy cost spikes. Gold eased 0.52% to $4,697.70 with fading safe-haven appeal, and Bitcoin dropped 2.28% to $76,865.00 amid crypto market swings, affecting flows into Singapore's hubs. USD strength persisted, pressuring emerging currencies like the rupiah and baht, though softer US inflation could delay Fed hikes and aid ASEAN inflows.

China's potential stimulus may lift commodity demand for Indonesia's nickel and Malaysia's palm oil, but European slowdowns challenge ASEAN exports, especially Thailand's. Geopolitical tensions heighten energy risks, with strategists forecasting deeper baht losses. Overall, ASEAN leverages export surges to the US, as seen in Thailand's 41.8% jump, amid tariff rulings and decoupling trends, bolstering regional growth despite broader risk aversion.

ASEAN Central Banks Watch

Bank Indonesia has adopted a hawkish tone, pledging more intense interventions to safeguard rupiah stability, viewing it as undervalued due to global influences like USD strength, not domestic weakness, with adequate reserves for support. Thailand's central bank, facing April 28 decision, is expected to hold rates at 1% amid baht depreciation from oil shocks, monitoring inflation while export vigor offers resilience. Malaysia's BNM holds steady, managing ringgit dips from geopolitical factors without imminent rate changes, emphasizing capital flows.

Philippines' BSP tracks PHP weakening, potentially using reserves, differing from BI's aggressive FX approach. Singapore's MAS prioritizes NEER bands for exchange rate stability to curb inflation, contrasting rate-based policies elsewhere. Vietnam's SBV focuses on reserve management to sustain export competitiveness amid FDI inflows, intervening minimally in VND markets.

ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)