ASEAN Stocks Fall, Currencies Weaken

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
JCI	6,969.40	-2.86%
SET	1,500.36	-0.48%
KLCI	1,748.06	-0.61%
PSEi	5,960.97	-1.21%
STI	4,921.90	-0.41%
USD/IDR	17,410.00	+0.67%
USD/THB	32.25	+0.00%
USD/MYR	3.92	+0.32%
USD/PHP	60.91	+0.67%
USD/SGD	1.27	-0.04%
Brent Crude	104.29	+2.96%
Gold	4,749.60	+0.62%
Bitcoin	81,831.22	-0.37%
Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Thailand 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter	1.90	-	22:30
GDP Growth Year-over-Year	2.50	-	22:30

ASEAN equities declined across the board, led by Indonesia's JCI down 2.86% amid rupiah weakness and global caution.
Currencies mostly softened versus USD, with IDR, MYR, and PHP depreciating, while SGD saw a slight gain.
Brent crude rose 2.96% to 104.29, offering support to commodity-linked markets, with gold up 0.62% and Bitcoin down 0.37%.

Yesterday's Recap

ASEAN equity markets ended lower on May 10, mirroring global risk aversion driven by mixed economic signals from major economies. Indonesia's JCI fell 2.86% to 6,969.40, hit by rupiah depreciation and outflows from commodity sectors amid softening export demand. Thailand's SET dipped 0.48% to 1,500.36, pressured by ongoing political uncertainties affecting tourism and manufacturing.

Malaysia's KLCI declined 0.61% to 1,748.06, reflecting currency weakness and higher global yields. The Philippines' PSEi dropped 1.21% to 5,960.97, similarly impacted by peso losses and external rate pressures. Singapore's STI eased 0.41% to 4,921.90, with limited inflows despite SGD stability.

On the FX front, USD/IDR climbed 0.67% to 17,410.00, USD/THB held flat at 32.25, USD/MYR rose 0.32% to 3.92, USD/PHP increased 0.67% to 60.91, and USD/SGD dipped 0.04% to 1.27, highlighting uneven capital flow dynamics. Brent crude advanced 2.96% to 104.29, buoyed by supply concerns, while gold gained 0.62% to 4,749.60 and Bitcoin slipped 0.37% to 81,831.22. No regional economic data was released, shifting focus to international developments like US jobs figures.

The Day Ahead

No major economic events are scheduled for May 11 across ASEAN, with markets likely to trade on global sentiment and commodity moves. Upcoming highlights include Thailand's GDP releases on May 17 at 22:30 ET, featuring quarter-over-quarter growth (previous 1.9%) and year-over-year growth (previous 2.5%), which could shape Bank of Thailand policy views. Indonesia may see continued rupiah monitoring by Bank Indonesia amid volatility, potentially prompting interventions.

Singapore's MAS could adjust exchange rate bands if imported inflation pressures build. Malaysia and the Philippines face quiet sessions, though informal updates on industrial output or trade might surface for Vietnam. Traders will eye US Fed signals and oil price trends for directional cues, with any geopolitical escalations from ongoing tensions influencing risk appetite.

Other Economic Notes

ASEAN economies continue navigating supply chain relocations from China, enhancing FDI in Vietnam's electronics and Indonesia's EV sectors despite global slowdown signals. Indonesia and Malaysia's commodity reliance faces volatility from oil and metal prices, with Brent's recent uptick providing temporary relief. <i>↓ p.2</i>

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

The Philippines benefits from steady remittances supporting consumption, while Thailand's tourism rebound aids recovery amid domestic challenges. Singapore's structural strengths in finance and trade offer resilience, but elevated US rates risk curbing regional inflows. Overall, ASEAN-6 growth remains tied to export demand and commodity cycles, with varying exposure to external shocks.

Global Macro News

US jobs data showed 115,000 additions in April, exceeding forecasts despite geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict, with unemployment holding at 4.3%, bolstering USD strength and potentially postponing Fed rate cuts, which could pressure ASEAN currencies further. Canada's economy lost 18,000 jobs, elevating unemployment to a six-month high and stoking recession concerns, possibly reducing demand for ASEAN commodities like Malaysian palm oil. UK growth stalled, prompting NatWest warnings on job risks and analyst Alex Brummer's outlook for severe spending cuts, which may limit European capital into Singapore.

ECB's Lagarde cautioned on euro stablecoins threatening financial stability despite Bundesbank backing, heightening regulatory scrutiny for ASEAN fintech in Vietnam and the Philippines. Norges Bank is anticipated to raise rates and signal more tightening, according to Danske Bank, underscoring developed-market hawkishness that widens yield gaps and draws funds to high-yield ASEAN bonds like Indonesia's. Canada's TSX rose on metals strength rather than broad economic gains, aiding Indonesian commodity links.

Bitcoin edged down 0.37% to 81,831.22 amid crypto fluctuations, contrasting gold's 0.62% increase to 4,749.60. These factors amplify ASEAN's vulnerability to US resilience and emerging-market fragilities, tempered by Brent's 2.96% climb to 104.29 for energy producers.

ASEAN Central Banks Watch

Bank Indonesia maintains a defensive stance on the rupiah, frequently intervening to counter outflows, with its policy rate held steady as inflation moderates but USD pressures endure. Bank of Thailand prioritizes growth support via stable rates, tracking baht movements and tourism inflows, differing from Indonesia's more interventionist approach. Bank Negara Malaysia manages the ringgit through reserves and rate adjustments, focusing on inflation control with sufficient buffers for targeted actions.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas leans on peso stability and remittances, possibly considering easing if price pressures remain low. Monetary Authority of Singapore employs exchange rate policy via NEER bands, recently permitting mild SGD appreciation to mitigate inflation imports, setting it apart from interest-rate-focused counterparts. State Bank of Vietnam emphasizes dong defense through interventions and reserve accumulation to back manufacturing expansion, though it contends with global rate hikes.

<i>↓ p.2</i>

Continuation

ASEAN Central Banks Watch (continued)

Among the group, Indonesia and Vietnam exhibit the most proactive FX management, while Singapore's band system offers a unique non-rate mechanism, with reserve levels strongest in Singapore and more variable in Vietnam amid flow uncertainties.

ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)