ASEAN Stocks Mixed, FX Weakens

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
JCI	6,905.62	-0.92%
SET	1,489.29	-0.74%
KLCI	1,745.31	-0.16%
PSEi	5,986.85	+0.43%
STI	4,942.77	+0.42%
USD/IDR	17,509.00	+0.55%
USD/THB	32.34	+0.22%
USD/MYR	3.93	+0.26%
USD/PHP	61.46	+0.64%
USD/SGD	1.27	+0.23%
Brent Crude	107.13	+2.80%
Gold	4,727.50	+0.19%
Bitcoin	80,718.23	-1.24%
Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Thailand 10Y Govt Yield	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter	1.90	-	22:30
GDP Growth Year-over-Year	2.50	-	22:30
Inflation Rate Month-over-Month	0.30	-	00:00
Inflation Rate Year-over-Year	1.70	-	00:00

Regional equities closed mixed amid USD strength, with Philippine and Singapore indices gaining modestly while Indonesia and Thailand led declines.
ASEAN currencies depreciated against the USD, reflecting global risk aversion and rising Brent crude prices.
News highlighted Indonesia's strong Q1 growth, Thailand's debt plans amid oil shocks, and rupiah weakening despite no economic crisis.

Yesterday's Recap

ASEAN equity markets ended mixed on May 11, with Indonesia's JCI falling 0.92% to 6,905.62 amid rupiah weakness and reports of a volcanic eruption on an Indonesian island that killed three, potentially disrupting local tourism. Thailand's SET declined 0.74% to 1,489.29, pressured by baht depreciation and opposition challenges to the government's $12 billion borrowing plan to cushion Mideast crisis impacts. Malaysia's KLCI edged down 0.16% to 1,745.31, amid global central banks boosting holdings of Malaysian bonds, underscoring appeal as a reserve asset.

The Philippines' PSEi rose 0.43% to 5,986.85, supported by broader market resilience despite peso losses, while Singapore's STI gained 0.42% to 4,942.77 as a financial hub amid FX volatility. Currencies weakened across the board versus the USD, with USD/IDR up 0.55% to 17,509.00, USD/THB up 0.22% to 32.34, USD/MYR up 0.26% to 3.93, USD/PHP up 0.64% to 61.46, and USD/SGD up 0.23% to 1.27. Brent crude surged 2.80% to 107.13, boosting commodity-linked sectors in Indonesia but weighing on import-dependent economies like Thailand and the Philippines.

No major data releases occurred, but news on Indonesia's Q1 GDP growth at its fastest in over three years underscored resilience in the region's largest economy.

The Day Ahead

Upcoming ASEAN data includes Thailand's Q1 GDP growth figures, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, scheduled for release at 22:30 ET on May 17, with prior readings at 1.9% and 2.5% respectively, offering insights into tourism and manufacturing recovery amid oil shocks. Malaysia's April inflation rates, month-over-month and year-over-year, are due at 00:00 ET on May 19, following previous prints of 0.3% and 1.7%, which could influence BNM's stance on ringgit stability. No events are slated for tomorrow, May 13, allowing markets to digest global cues like Bank of Canada announcements.

Investors will monitor any FX interventions, particularly from BI in Indonesia, given recent rupiah pressures. Broader events may include updates on Thailand's borrowing plans, though none are formally calendared. Focus remains on how Middle East tensions affect energy imports for net importers like Thailand and the Philippines.

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Other Economic Notes

Indonesia's economy, the largest in ASEAN, benefits from commodity exports like nickel and palm oil, but rupiah weakening raises import costs and prompts BI vigilance on capital flows. Analysts note that despite the rupiah's drop, Indonesia is not on the brink of an economic crisis, with strong Q1 growth evidence of government strategies working. Thailand faces tourism vulnerabilities from oil price spikes and baht losses, exacerbated by the Mideast crisis, while considering higher public debt for additional borrowing.

Malaysia sees growing appeal for its bonds among foreign central banks, supporting ringgit stability amid inflation risks. The Philippines relies on remittances to buffer peso volatility, with PSEi showing gains despite FX pressures. Singapore maintains resilience as a financial hub, with STI edging higher amid global volatility.

Global Macro News

Global markets reacted to a firmer dollar, pressuring ASEAN currencies and equities, with Brent crude's 2.80% rise to 107.13 amplifying inflation concerns in oil-importing nations like Thailand and the Philippines. Gold edged up 0.19% to 4,727.50, offering a hedge for investors amid volatility, while Bitcoin fell 1.24% to 80,718.23, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment. Bank of Canada events, including the interest rate announcement at 09:45 ET, Monetary Policy Report, Business Outlook Survey at 11:30 ET, Market Participants Survey at 10:30 ET, and Summary of Deliberations at 13:30 ET, could signal global tightening trends that influence ASEAN capital flows, especially for MAS-managed SGD.

The Middle East crisis, highlighted in Thai baht forecasts and borrowing plans, risks escalating energy costs, impacting ASEAN trade balances. Analysts tie Indonesia's rupiah weakness to global USD strength rather than domestic crisis, despite strong Q1 growth.

ASEAN Central Banks Watch

Bank Indonesia (BI) remains focused on defending the rupiah, with potential FX interventions amid USD/IDR's rise to 17,509.00, supported by adequate reserves but facing pressures from commodity price swings and capital outflows. Bank of Thailand (BoT) monitors baht weakness at USD/THB 32.34, with inflation dynamics complicated by oil shocks, though no immediate rate changes are signaled amid government debt plans. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) observes ringgit-tempered inflation at 1.7% y/y, with global central banks increasing Malaysian bond holdings, but flags Middle East risks that could prompt future adjustments.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) watches peso depreciation to USD/PHP 61.46, balancing inflation control with remittance-driven growth, showing policy divergence from more interventionist peers like BI. Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains its exchange rate band policy via the NEER, with USD/SGD at 1.27 reflecting controlled appreciation to curb imported inflation without interest rate tools. Overall, divergences persist, with BI leaning defensive on FX, while MAS prioritizes bands and BNM emphasizes growth risks.

ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)