ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Rupiah Hits Record Low Ahead of BI Decision
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,723.32 | -1.98% |
| SET | 1,517.95 | -1.38% |
| KLCI | 1,740.22 | -0.31% |
| PSEi | 5,976.77 | -0.64% |
| STI | 4,989.08 | -0.14% |
| USD/IDR | 17,661.00 | +0.74% |
| USD/THB | 32.49 | +0.26% |
| USD/MYR | 3.97 | +1.15% |
| USD/PHP | 61.56 | +0.03% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | +0.12% |
| Brent Crude | 109.12 | -0.13% |
| Gold | 4,578.20 | +0.49% |
| Bitcoin | 77,125.68 | -0.39% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.90 | 0.10 | 0.70 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 2.20 | 2.80 |
USD/IDR Exchange Rate | Type: market_hloc | IDR per USD: 1.766e+04 (2026-05-18) | Range: 1.675e+04–1.766e+04 | Trend(5pt): 1.684e+04,1.688e+04,1.696e+04,1.725e+04,1.766e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.30 | - | 20:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.70 | 1.90 | 20:00 |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.75 | 5 | 23:30 |
- Thailand GDP QoQ beats expectations at 0.7% versus 0.1% consensus
- Rupiah falls to fresh record low of 17,661 per USD despite BI intervention
- Regional equities slide with JCI down 1.98% and SET off 1.38%
Yesterday's Recap
Thailand posted stronger GDP growth than forecast, with quarter-over-quarter expansion at 0.7% and year-over-year growth reaching 2.8%. Indonesia dominated market attention as the rupiah weakened to a record low of 17,661 against the dollar even after Bank Indonesia stepped in with currency support. Equity markets across ASEAN closed lower, led by a 1.98% drop in the JCI and a 1.38% decline in the SET.
The Malaysian ringgit also came under pressure, with USD/MYR rising 1.15% to 3.97. President Prabowo Subianto downplayed the rupiah’s slide by noting limited dollar usage in rural areas. Foreign flows remained cautious amid ongoing structural concerns over Indonesia’s current-account and fiscal balances.
The Day Ahead
Malaysia will release May inflation figures today, with year-over-year expected to rise to 1.9% from 1.7%. Bank Indonesia’s policy meeting concludes tomorrow evening, where markets now price a 25bp hike to 5.00%. Thailand’s Constitutional Court is due to rule on the legality of the government’s 400 billion baht emergency borrowing plan.
Vietnam continues to report strong electronics export momentum that should support SBV reserve accumulation. Singapore’s MAS will next review its S$NEER band in June, with no interim adjustment anticipated.
Other Economic Notes
Thailand’s finance ministry is preparing a fresh cost-of-living package despite the GDP beat, highlighting persistent household pressure from food and energy prices. Malaysia’s ringgit is expected to trade in a narrow 3.94-3.96 range next week as resilient domestic growth offsets external risks. Vietnam’s FDI disbursements remain on track for another record year, driven by electronics and EV supply-chain relocation.
Regional manufacturing PMIs continue to signal steady reallocation of production away from China.
Global Macro News
The US dollar stayed firm against ASEAN currencies on persistent rate-differential and safe-haven demand. Brent crude held near $109 per barrel with limited reaction to OPEC+ signals. Gold rose 0.49% to $4,578 per ounce as investors sought hedges amid Middle East tensions.
Bitcoin eased 0.39% to $77,126. Broader risk sentiment softened after mixed US data reinforced expectations of delayed Fed easing. <i>↓ p.2</i>
