ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Indonesia Inflation Overshoots, Surplus Narrows
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,127.38 | -0.05% |
| SET | 1,568.37 | -0.04% |
| KLCI | 1,683.07 | +0.00% |
| PSEi | 5,799.32 | +0.53% |
| STI | 5,037.86 | +0.98% |
| USD/IDR | 17,858.00 | +0.23% |
| USD/THB | 32.63 | +0.15% |
| USD/MYR | 3.96 | -0.13% |
| USD/PHP | 61.63 | +0.23% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | +0.11% |
| Brent Crude | 96.17 | +1.25% |
| Gold | 4,518.30 | +0.96% |
| Bitcoin | 67,308.34 | -5.62% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.42 | 2.97 | 3.08 |
| Trade Balance | 3,320m | 1,500m | 90m |
USD/IDR | Type: market_hloc | Rate: 1.786e+04 (2026-06-02) | Range: 1.675e+04–1.786e+04 | Trend(6pt): 1.68e+04,1.687e+04,1.713e+04,1.73e+04,1.784e+04,1.786e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 7.20 | 7.50 | 17:00 |
- Indonesia May inflation rose to 3.08% YoY, exceeding consensus of 2.97%.
- Trade surplus narrowed sharply to $90 million, a six-year low.
- Rupiah eased to 17,858 per USD as markets digested the data.
Yesterday's Recap
Indonesia dominated ASEAN news flow after May inflation printed at 3.08% YoY, driven by higher chilli prices, while the trade surplus collapsed to just $90 million against a $1.5 billion consensus. Both releases triggered immediate selling in the rupiah, which rose 0.23% to 17,858 versus the dollar. Jakarta’s JCI slipped 0.05% to 6,127.38, underperforming regional peers.
Thailand’s SET fell 0.04% to 1,568.37 on thin volume. Malaysia’s KLCI held flat at 1,683.07, while the Philippines’ PSEi gained 0.53% and Singapore’s STI rose 0.98%. Brent crude added 1.25% to $96.17, providing limited support to commodity-linked currencies.
Regional equity and FX desks noted the divergence, with commodity exporters showing relative resilience amid broader USD strength. The data releases reinforced concerns over external pressures on the rupiah, prompting modest positioning adjustments ahead of the next policy meeting.
The Day Ahead
Markets await the Philippines May inflation print due 4 June. Analysts expect a modest rise to 7.5% YoY from 7.2%, keeping BSP on watch for any acceleration in core prices. Thailand’s BoT governor reiterated 2% GDP growth and 3% inflation forecasts for 2026, signalling steady policy.
No major data releases are scheduled for Indonesia, Malaysia or Singapore today. Regional equity and FX desks will monitor USD strength and any follow-through selling in the rupiah. Focus will also remain on commodity price movements, particularly Brent crude and gold, which could influence sentiment toward energy and precious-metal exporters.
Other Economic Notes
Commodity price gains offered modest relief to Indonesia and Malaysia, yet persistent USD strength continues to pressure regional currencies. Supply-chain shifts from China remain supportive for Vietnam’s electronics exports and Malaysia’s semiconductor sector. Political uncertainty in the Philippines is cited by local think-tanks as an emerging risk to near-term growth and investor sentiment.
Ringgit forecasts from Marc Ratings point to a 3.92-4.07 range versus the dollar in the short term, consistent with current levels near 3.96. Broader ASEAN FDI trends continue to favour electronics and EV-related investments, cushioning external balances in several economies.
