ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BI, BSP Hike Rates 25bp to Defend Currencies
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,220.74 | -0.55% |
| SET | 1,592.41 | +1.28% |
| KLCI | 1,709.99 | +1.10% |
| PSEi | 5,910.06 | -0.53% |
| STI | 5,176.46 | +1.16% |
| USD/IDR | 17,891.00 | +0.91% |
| USD/THB | 32.77 | +0.34% |
| USD/MYR | 4.08 | +0.27% |
| USD/PHP | 60.06 | -0.03% |
| USD/SGD | 1.29 | +0.17% |
| Brent Crude | 79.27 | -0.35% |
| Gold | 4,226.80 | -3.03% |
| Bitcoin | 62,792.40 | -4.28% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.75 |
USD/IDR Exchange Rate (3mo) | Type: market_hloc | USD per IDR: 1.789e+04 (2026-06-18) | Range: 1.675e+04–1.819e+04 | Trend(6pt): 1.704e+04,1.706e+04,1.729e+04,1.776e+04,1.773e+04,1.789e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.40 | - | 20:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.90 | 2.10 | 20:00 |
| Friday (2026-06-19) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.40 | - | 20:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.90 | 2.10 | 20:00 |
- Bank Indonesia raises benchmark rate to 5.75% for the second consecutive meeting to stem rupiah depreciation
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas lifts policy rate to 4.75%, aligning with consensus amid persistent price pressures
- Regional equity markets finish mixed while USD/IDR climbs 0.91% to 17,891 amid broad dollar strength
Yesterday's Recap
Bank Indonesia delivered a 25bp rate increase to 5.75%, its second hike in as many meetings, explicitly aimed at attracting capital inflows and stabilising the rupiah after recent sharp losses. The committee cited elevated imported inflation risks and the need to maintain reserve adequacy. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas matched the move, lifting its rate to 4.75% as May inflation prints remained above target.
Equity markets reacted unevenly: Indonesia’s JCI fell 0.55% to 6,220.74 while Thailand’s SET rose 1.28% to 1,592.41 and Malaysia’s KLCI gained 1.10% to 1,709.99. The Philippine PSEi slipped 0.53% to 5,910.06. Singapore’s STI advanced 1.16% to 5,176.46.
USD/IDR jumped 0.91%, USD/THB rose 0.34% and USD/MYR added 0.27%, while USD/PHP eased 0.03% and USD/SGD rose 0.17%. Brent crude eased 0.35% to $79.27.
The Day Ahead
Malaysia will release May inflation data at 20:00 ET, with the year-over-year rate expected to rise to 2.1% from 1.9%. Month-over-month prints are also due. No major releases are scheduled for Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore or Vietnam.
Traders will monitor any follow-up comments from BI Governor Perry Warjiyo on the rupiah defence strategy. Regional FX desks remain focused on upcoming US data that could influence Fed policy expectations and capital-flow direction into ASEAN.
Other Economic Notes
Indonesia’s repeated rate hikes underscore the commodity exporter’s vulnerability to external financing conditions despite strong FDI inflows into nickel and battery supply chains. Malaysia’s semiconductor exports contracted in May while Vietnam’s electronics shipments continued to expand, highlighting uneven supply-chain recovery across the region. Thailand’s tourism rebound from Chinese arrivals is providing modest baht support but remains insufficient to offset energy-import costs.
Remittance-dependent Philippines faces additional pressure from higher domestic borrowing costs following the BSP move.
