ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Rupiah Gains on BI Focus, Thai Deficit Widens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,236.13 | +0.80% |
| KLCI | 1,724.90 | +0.26% |
| STI | 5,628.50 | -0.79% |
| USD/IDR | 17,990.00 | -0.28% |
| USD/THB | 33.39 | +0.06% |
| USD/MYR | 4.08 | +0.30% |
| USD/PHP | 61.24 | -0.44% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | -0.13% |
| Brent Crude | 90.12 | +1.22% |
| Gold | 4,107.00 | +0.17% |
| Bitcoin | 63,596.97 | +1.33% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
USD/IDR 3M | Type: market_hloc | Rate: 1.799e+04 (2026-08-02) | Range: 1.729e+04–1.819e+04 | Trend(5pt): 1.733e+04,1.769e+04,1.773e+04,1.812e+04,1.799e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -1,610m | -790m | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.34 | 3.20 | 00:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 6.40 | - | 21:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 5.61 | - | 00:00 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.80 | - | 21:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | - | 22:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.80 | - | 22:00 |
- Indonesian rupiah strengthened 0.28% to 17,990 per USD amid BI emphasis on stability and Fed pause signals.
- Thailand posted a $3.5 billion current account deficit in June while BoT advanced measures to curb youth mule accounts.
- Malaysia inflation eased to 1.9% in June; regional equities mixed as JCI rose 0.80%.
Yesterday's Recap
Indonesian markets led regional moves with the JCI climbing 0.80% to 6,236.13 as signals around Perry Warjiyo and BI’s renewed focus on rupiah defense lifted sentiment. The rupiah gained 0.28% to 17,990 per USD after reports highlighted BI’s priority on currency stability and inflation control amid global uncertainty. Thailand recorded a $3.5 billion current account deficit in June, prompting fresh government plans to address external imbalances.
The Bank of Thailand announced tighter daily transfer limits of 3,000-10,000 baht for youth accounts starting September to combat a 70% rise in mule accounts. Malaysia’s headline inflation cooled to 1.9% in June on lower retail fuel prices. Singapore’s STI fell 0.79% to 5,628.50 and the ringgit weakened 0.30% to 4.08 per USD.
Vietnam and the Philippines saw limited data impact, with regional FX moves dominated by Indonesia and Malaysia developments. Indonesia gold investment demand surged 40% in Q2 as households hedged rupiah volatility, while Maybank Indonesia reported a 21.2% rise in first-half net profit.
The Day Ahead
Indonesia will release June trade balance and July inflation data on 3 August, with consensus pointing to a narrower trade deficit of $790 million and inflation easing to 3.2% year-over-year. Philippines inflation for July follows on 4 August, after the June print of 6.4%. GDP growth figures for Indonesia and the Philippines are scheduled for 5-6 August, with markets watching whether Indonesia’s second-quarter expansion stays above 5%.
Bank of Thailand and BNM are not expected to meet this week, leaving focus on data releases. MAS will continue monitoring the Singapore dollar NEER band without scheduled policy announcements. Vietnam SBV is likely to maintain its current stance amid stable capital flows.
Other Economic Notes
Indonesia’s Q2 growth forecasts from CORE sit below 5%, raising questions about the durability of domestic demand despite commodity support. Thailand’s capital misallocation continues to constrain potential growth even as the country moves closer to removal from the US Treasury monitoring list. Malaysia’s stable second-half outlook rests on resilient exports and contained inflation.
Regional gold demand in Indonesia surged 40% in the second quarter as households hedged rupiah volatility. <i>↓ p.2</i>
