ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Indonesia GDP Growth Eases, BI Governor Resigns
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,319.61 | +1.37% |
| KLCI | 1,732.66 | +0.40% |
| STI | 5,612.25 | -0.00% |
| USD/IDR | 17,932.00 | -0.17% |
| USD/THB | 33.06 | -1.02% |
| USD/MYR | 4.09 | -0.08% |
| USD/PHP | 60.70 | -0.21% |
| USD/SGD | 1.28 | -0.09% |
| Brent Crude | 79.40 | +0.05% |
| Gold | 4,308.00 | +5.19% |
| Bitcoin | 64,641.08 | +0.91% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.34 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| Trade Balance | -1,610m | -790m | -450m |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 6.40 | 6.30 | 6.20 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 5.61 | 5.10 | 5.29 |
USD/IDR 3M | Type: market_hloc | USD/IDR: 1.793e+04 (2026-08-05) | Range: 1.729e+04–1.819e+04 | Trend(6pt): 1.735e+04,1.77e+04,1.789e+04,1.812e+04,1.803e+04,1.793e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 4.80 | - | 17:00 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | 0.90 | 18:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 2.80 | 18:00 |
- Indonesia July inflation fell to 2.88% YoY and GDP growth moderated to 5.29%, both below consensus, while trade balance improved to -450 million USD.
- Philippines inflation eased to 6.2% YoY; JCI rose 1.37% and regional currencies strengthened modestly against the USD.
- BI Governor Perry Warjiyo resigned for personal reasons, raising questions on policy independence amid rupiah pressure.
Yesterday's Recap
Indonesia released softer-than-expected July inflation at 2.88% YoY against a 3.2% consensus, while the trade balance narrowed to a 450 million USD deficit, better than forecasts. GDP growth for the period came in at 5.29% YoY, missing the 5.1% consensus and prior 5.61% print. Philippines inflation cooled to 6.2% YoY from 6.4%.
Equity markets showed gains, with JCI advancing 1.37% to 6,319.61 and KLCI up 0.40%, while the STI held flat. Currencies firmed across the board, led by USD/THB down 1.02% and USD/IDR easing 0.17%. Gold surged 5.19% to 4,308, providing support to commodity-linked ASEAN assets.
News of BI Governor Perry Warjiyo’s resignation triggered immediate market attention on potential shifts in rupiah defense and capital-flow management. Regional investors noted the improved Indonesian trade balance as a modest positive amid softer growth prints, while Philippine data reinforced a gradual disinflation path that could influence BSP timing later in the year.
The Day Ahead
Philippines unemployment data is due today at 17:00 ET, followed by Q2 GDP prints tomorrow showing expected 0.9% QoQ and 2.8% YoY growth. No major releases are scheduled for Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore or Vietnam. Markets will monitor any statements from remaining BI officials after the governor’s exit.
Regional investors also await further details on Thailand’s stablecoin audit and Malaysia’s 4-5% growth outlook. Limited event risk should keep focus on FX flows and external sentiment. Analysts expect the Philippine labor print to show stability near 4.8%, providing little new impetus for rate decisions, while the GDP figures are viewed as confirmatory rather than market-moving given the tight consensus range.
Other Economic Notes
Indonesia’s first panda-bond issuance signals diversification of funding sources away from traditional USD markets. Thailand’s Bank of Thailand and SEC are intensifying scrutiny of high-volume USDT trades to curb grey-economy flows, which could dampen liquidity in digital channels. Malaysia’s central bank reiterated the 4-5% growth trajectory despite global energy shocks, supported by semiconductor exports.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
