ASEAN Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BI Holds at 5.75%, Leans on FX Tools
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| JCI | 6,394.12 | -0.86% |
| KLCI | 1,731.32 | -0.12% |
| STI | 5,694.24 | -0.13% |
| USD/IDR | 17,774.00 | +0.03% |
| USD/THB | 32.83 | -0.82% |
| USD/MYR | 4.04 | -0.43% |
| USD/PHP | 61.68 | +0.10% |
| USD/SGD | 1.27 | -0.56% |
| Brent Crude | 93.15 | +1.67% |
| Gold | 4,575.10 | +1.91% |
| Bitcoin | 72,609.69 | +4.83% |
| Indonesia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Thailand 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0 | - | 0 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.90 | - | 1.80 |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.75 |
USD/IDR Exchange Rate | Type: market_hloc | Rate: 1.777e+04 (2026-08-20) | Range: 1.766e+04–1.819e+04 | Trend(6pt): 1.778e+04,1.788e+04,1.779e+04,1.796e+04,1.782e+04,1.777e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 1 | - | 03:00 |
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.75 | - | 02:30 |
- Bank Indonesia holds policy rate at 5.75% and leans on FX interventions to support the rupiah amid global uncertainty.
- Malaysia inflation eases to 1.8% YoY in July with flat MoM reading, while regional equities post modest losses.
- USD/IDR edges 0.03% higher and USD/THB falls 0.82% as commodity prices lift Brent crude 1.67%.
Yesterday's Recap
Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75%, with the committee citing rupiah stability and opting to deploy FX tools rather than additional hikes. Malaysia reported July inflation at 1.8% YoY, down from 1.9% previously, and flat month-over-month. Equity markets closed lower across the region, with JCI falling 0.86% to 6,394.12, KLCI declining 0.12% to 1,731.32 and STI slipping 0.13% to 5,694.24.
Currencies showed mixed moves against the dollar, as USD/IDR rose 0.03% to 17,774 while USD/THB dropped 0.82% to 32.83 and USD/MYR eased 0.43% to 4.04. Brent crude advanced 1.67% to 93.15 and gold climbed 1.91% to 4,575.10, reflecting firmer commodity support for regional exporters. Analysts noted BI’s preference for exchange-rate management over rate adjustments to defend the rupiah without tightening domestic liquidity further.
Indonesia’s central bank emphasized stability-focused measures, with multiple reports confirming the hold decision and continued focus on rupiah defense through non-rate channels. Thai baht faces headwinds from higher commodity prices that could pressure stability, while Malaysian ringgit held near RM4.05 ahead of external catalysts.
The Day Ahead
Thailand’s central bank is scheduled to announce its policy decision on 26 August, with markets expecting a hold at the current 1% level amid stable inflation. The Philippines central bank follows on 27 August, where BSP is likely to maintain its 4.75% rate given contained price pressures. Indonesia will auction 10-year sukuk worth IDR 5 trillion, testing demand for rupiah-denominated paper.
Vietnam is set to release July retail-sales data, which should confirm continued consumer resilience. Malaysia and Singapore have no major releases scheduled, leaving focus on external drivers such as upcoming Fed minutes. Regional FX desks will monitor any further signs of capital-flow pressure on the rupiah and ringgit.
Thai banks face ongoing headwinds from rising bad debts amid high costs and weak demand, while sustainability bond issuance plans signal continued fiscal support measures.
Other Economic Notes
Higher commodity prices are supporting export revenues in Indonesia and Malaysia while posing pass-through risks to Thai inflation via energy costs. <i>↓ p.2</i>
