Andeans Mixed on Commodity Swings

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MSCI Colombia	9.02	+0.00%
MSCI Chile	39.73	+1.90%
MSCI Peru	83.97	+0.94%
USD/COP	3,764.16	+1.41%
USD/CLP	906.29	+0.07%
USD/PEN	3.49	+3.87%
Copper	5.91	+1.87%
Gold	5,184.00	+1.82%
Brent Crude	87.49	-11.59%
Bitcoin	70,835.17	+3.56%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield	-	-
Chile Short-term Rate	4.64%	-2.32%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Andean equities showed divergence, with Chile and Peru gaining on copper rally while Colombia flatlined amid oil plunge.
Currencies weakened, led by PEN's sharp drop; COP and CLP saw milder depreciation against USD.
Commodities boosted miners, but Brent's steep fall pressured Colombian fiscal outlook.

Yesterday's Recap

Andean markets delivered mixed results amid volatile commodity prices, with no major data releases across the bloc. In Chile, the MSCI Chile index rose 1.90% to 39.73, supported by a 1.87% increase in copper prices to 5.91, benefiting the mining sector that dominates exports. Peru's MSCI Peru index climbed 0.94% to 83.97, also lifted by copper gains and a 1.82% rise in gold to 5,184.00, aiding fiscal stability in the commodity-reliant economy.

Colombia's MSCI Colombia index held flat at 9.02 with a 0.00% change, weighed down by an 11.59% drop in Brent crude to 87.49, which exacerbates current account pressures. Currency moves reflected these dynamics, as USD/COP appreciated 1.41% to 3,764.16 on oil weakness, while USD/PEN surged 3.87% to 3.49 amid broader EM FX turbulence. USD/CLP edged up just 0.07% to 906.29, cushioned by Chile's copper surplus.

Overall, the session highlighted commodity dependence, with Bitcoin's 3.56% gain to 70,835.17 offering minor diversification for regional investors.

The Day Ahead

The Andean calendar remains light tomorrow with no scheduled data releases for Colombia, Chile, or Peru, allowing markets to digest recent commodity volatility. Investors will monitor global risk sentiment, particularly US inflation cues that could influence EM FX flows into the bloc. In Chile, ongoing lithium sector developments may draw attention amid global EV demand, potentially supporting CLP if new contracts emerge.

Peru could see focus on mining strikes, given copper's recent rally and supply risks. Colombia's oil-dependent economy may react to any Brent rebounds, with fiscal reform talks in Bogota possibly stirring sovereign spreads. Broader LatAm events, like Trump's Miami summit, might indirectly affect regional alliances and trade sentiment.

Other Economic Notes

Persistent commodity price swings underscore Andean vulnerabilities, with Chile and Peru benefiting from copper and gold strength while Colombia grapples with oil declines impacting fiscal balances. Emerging lithium themes in Chile position it for diversification, potentially enhancing long-term growth amid global green energy shifts. Political risks, including US-LatAm summits excluding key players like Colombia, could heighten FX volatility and reform uncertainties across the bloc.

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Inflation targeting remains crucial, with divergences in central bank stances reflecting varied commodity exposures.

Global Macro News

Global markets are navigating US inflation persistence and a strengthening dollar, pressuring Andean currencies as seen in yesterday's PEN and COP depreciations. Trump's 'Shield of Americas' summit in Miami convened 12 Latin American leaders to counter Chinese influence, but notably omitted Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico, highlighting ideological divides that could fragment regional trade. This exclusion exposes potential rifts in US foreign policy, with experts labeling it theatrical and ineffective against Beijing's entrenched economic ties in the region.

In Peru, a landmark court ruling held the state responsible for a mother's death in 1990s forced sterilizations, targeting Indigenous women, which may amplify social unrest and political risk premiums in sovereign bonds. Broader US intervention rhetoric, including Pete Hegseth's calls for military action against cartels, raises skepticism about escalating force in LatAm without addressing root causes. China's years of building LatAm ties via infrastructure and trade challenge Trump's bid to reclaim influence, potentially affecting Andean commodity exports to Asia.

ECB's deposit rate at 2.00% as of March 9, 2026, signals steady Eurozone policy, indirectly supporting global liquidity that benefits Andean miners. Eurozone unemployment at 6.70% as of January 2023 underscores lingering labor market slack, tempering demand for Andean exports like copper.

Andean Central Banks Watch

Andean central banks maintain divergent stances amid inflation and growth challenges, with BanRep in Colombia upholding a hawkish posture due to sticky inflation above target, recently holding rates to preserve credibility. BCCh in Chile has pursued aggressive rate cuts, exemplified by its short-term rate dropping 2.32% to 4.64%, aiming to stimulate activity in the copper-driven economy. BCRP in Peru exhibits stability, typically avoiding sharp moves to anchor expectations in its inflation-targeting framework.

Rate path divergences persist, with Colombia's caution contrasting Chile's easing cycle, potentially widening FX spreads if global rates rise. No FX interventions were reported yesterday, but reserve management remains vigilant, especially for Peru amid PEN volatility. Inflation credibility is strongest in Peru, while Colombia faces pressures from fiscal deficits and oil shocks.

Overall, these banks monitor commodity trends closely, with Chile's cuts supporting lithium expansion.

Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)