Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

March 24, 2026 robomacro.com

Colombia Crash, Chile Rates Hold

Market Snapshot

AssetLevelChange
MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%
MSCI Chile38.85+2.08%
MSCI Peru76.95+3.61%
USD/COP3,698.50+1.99%
USD/CLP912.04-1.67%
USD/PEN3.46+2.16%
Copper5.41-0.51%
Gold4,435.20+0.71%
Brent Crude101.55+1.61%
Bitcoin71,022.27+0.15%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield--
Chile Short-term Rate4.50%-3.02%

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available
Brent Crude Oil PriceBrent Crude Oil Price | Type: macro_line | Brent USD/bbl: 101 (2026-03-16) | Range: 59.93–133.2 | Trend(5pt): 61.21,114.5,93.7,74.3,101

Today's Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
No events available
  • Colombian military plane crash kills at least 66, with equities flat but COP weakening amid USD strength.
  • Chilean assets rally on postponed U.S. strikes easing oil shocks, despite copper dip, with CLP strengthening.
  • Peruvian markets rise on gold gains, though PEN weakens and political turmoil from minister's resignation persists.

Yesterday's Recap

Andean markets showed mixed performance amid commodity fluctuations and regional news. In Colombia, the MSCI index held flat at 9.02 with no daily change, overshadowed by a tragic military plane crash in the southern Amazon that killed at least 66, potentially impacting sentiment in defense and infrastructure sectors. The USD/COP surged 1.99% to 3,698.50, reflecting broader USD strength and Brent crude's 1.61% rise to 101.55, which supported Colombian exporters despite no major data releases.

Chilean equities advanced, with MSCI Chile up 2.08% to 38.85, buoyed by positive sentiment from postponed U.S. strikes on Iranian energy assets easing oil shocks, even as copper dipped 0.51% to 5.41. The USD/CLP fell 1.67% to 912.04, aiding exporters, while Chile's short-term rate stood at 4.50% with a -3.02% change, signaling market adjustments.

In Peru, MSCI Peru climbed 3.61% to 76.95, driven by gold's 0.71% gain to 4,435.20, though USD/PEN rose 2.16% to 3.46 amid political noise from the energy minister's resignation over assault allegations. Overall, commodity-sensitive moves dominated without key data, with Bitcoin's slight 0.15% uptick to 71,022.27 adding minor risk-on flows to the region.

The Day Ahead

The Andean calendar remains light with no major data releases scheduled, allowing markets to digest ongoing geopolitical and commodity developments. In Chile, attention turns to the central bank's potential rate decision, where policymakers are expected to hold steady amid oil price shocks threatening inflation targets, as per recent reports. Colombian traders will monitor any fallout from the plane crash investigation, which could influence fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure.

Peru faces continued scrutiny over the energy minister's resignation, potentially affecting mining sector regulations and investor confidence in reforms. Broader focus includes global oil dynamics, with Brent's trajectory impacting Colombia's export revenues. Expect FX volatility in COP, CLP, and PEN as USD movements persist.

Other Economic Notes

Broader Andean themes highlight commodity dependence, with copper's volatility pressuring Chile and Peru's fiscal balances, where mining royalties contribute significantly to budgets. (cont...)

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Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

March 24, 2026 robomacro.com
MSCI Chile vs Copper MSCI Chile vs Copper | Type: market_hloc | MSCI Chile: 38.85 (2026-03-23) | Range: 38.06–47.37 | Trend(5pt): 39.95,44.09,46.17,39.57,38.85 | Copper Price: 5.404 (2026-03-24) | Range: 5.343–6.175 | Trend(5pt): 5.498,5.788,5.945,5.773,5.404
MSCI Peru vs Gold MSCI Peru vs Gold | Type: market_hloc | MSCI Peru: 76.95 (2026-03-23) | Range: 71.95–93.84 | Trend(5pt): 72.74,82.63,91.08,87.55,76.95 | Gold Price: 4405 (2026-03-24) | Range: 4314–5318 | Trend(5pt): 4481,4588,5051,5107,4405
USD/CLP vs USD/PEN USD/CLP vs USD/PEN | Type: market_hloc | USD/CLP: 912.2 (2026-03-24) | Range: 852.4–927.5 | Trend(6pt): 907.3,882.5,866.2,865.2,912.5,912.2 | USD/PEN: 3.455 (2026-03-24) | Range: 3.261–3.487 | Trend(6pt): 3.363,3.358,3.365,3.353,3.453,3.455
Copper vs Gold Copper vs Gold | Type: market_hloc | Copper: 5.404 (2026-03-24) | Range: 5.343–6.175 | Trend(5pt): 5.498,5.788,5.945,5.773,5.404 | Gold: 4405 (2026-03-24) | Range: 4314–5318 | Trend(5pt): 4481,4588,5051,5107,4405

Other Economic Notes (continued)

Political risks remain elevated, as seen in Peru's ministerial scandal and Colombia's accident, potentially widening sovereign spreads if reforms stall. Emerging lithium developments in Chile offer diversification potential, though capex delays amid supply gluts could limit near-term FX support. Protection of endemic seals in Chile via a new marine park underscores environmental priorities that may influence mining and energy policies.

Global Macro News

Global macro pressures are weighing on Andeans through commodity channels, with copper reacting to U.S. postponement of strikes on Iranian energy assets, benefiting Chile and Peru's export sectors amid inventory concerns. Oil's rally to 101.55 supports Colombia's current account but raises inflation risks across the bloc, echoing Middle East turmoil that hammered the Philippine peso to record lows below 60:1.

ECB's deposit rate at 2.00% signals steady European policy, indirectly aiding Andean bonds via lower global yields, though Eurozone unemployment at 6.70% underscores demand weakness for exports. Swiss franc intervention risks undermine safe-haven flows, potentially redirecting capital to emerging markets like Andeans. UK's pound drop amid oil risks and government strategy highlights energy transition themes relevant to Chile's renewables and Peru's mining electrification.

Australian diesel crisis drags mining stocks, paralleling Andean vulnerabilities in fuel-dependent operations. UAE energy partnerships signal investment opportunities for Andean miners, fostering cross-regional ties.

Andean Central Banks Watch

Andean central banks diverge in response to inflation and commodity shocks, with BanRep in Colombia maintaining a hawkish stance due to persistent price pressures, likely holding rates to preserve credibility amid COP depreciation. BCCh in Chile is set to pause reductions and hold rates as oil shocks threaten recent inflation successes, prioritizing stability over easing. BCRP in Peru remains stable, with minimal FX interventions supporting PEN despite political noise, focusing on reserve management to buffer mining downturns.

Rate path divergences persist, as Colombia's inflation targeting faces upside risks from Brent gains, while Chile's past cuts contrast with current caution. Reserve levels across the trio support limited interventions, with BanRep occasionally stepping in to curb COP volatility. Overall, credibility remains intact, though fiscal linkages to commodities could force policy adjustments if global energy tensions escalate.

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