Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Andean Equities Rally, Brent Dives
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 39.76 | +3.87% |
| MSCI Peru | 80.71 | +5.99% |
| USD/COP | 3,665.57 | -0.26% |
| USD/CLP | 915.64 | -1.57% |
| USD/PEN | 3.48 | +1.43% |
| Copper | 5.63 | +0.71% |
| Gold | 4,766.30 | +2.55% |
| Brent Crude | 102.80 | -13.14% |
| Bitcoin | 68,584.91 | +0.52% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Chile Short-term Rate | 4.50% | -3.02% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Chile Short-Term Rate | Type: macro_line | Chile Rate: 4.5 (2026-01-01) | Range: 0.3–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 0.3,9.55,9.55,5.25,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Andean equities surged, with MSCI Chile up 3.87% and MSCI Peru gaining 5.99%, driven by commodity rebounds despite Brent's sharp 13.14% drop.
- FX markets showed mixed moves: CLP strengthened 1.57% vs USD, COP firmed 0.26%, while PEN weakened 1.43%.
- Commodities mixed—copper rose 0.71%, gold climbed 2.55%—bolstering Chile and Peru amid Colombia's oil resilience.
Yesterday's Recap
Andean markets displayed resilience amid volatile commodities, with Chile's MSCI index rallying 3.87% to 39.76 on copper's 0.71% gain to $5.63, offsetting fiscal pressures from mining disruptions. Peru's MSCI surged 5.99% to 80.71, fueled by gold's 2.55% rise to $4,766.30, which supports export revenues given its status as a top producer. Colombia's MSCI held flat at 9.02 with no change, as Brent crude's 13.14% plunge to $102.80 weighed on oil-dependent exports, though USD/COP dipped 0.26% to 3,665.57 signaling modest COP strength.
Chile's short-term rate fell to 4.50% with a -3.02% change, reflecting easing expectations amid commodity upticks. No major data releases occurred across the bloc, allowing markets to focus on global cues like Bitcoin's 0.52% rise to $68,584.91, with limited regional impact. Peru's USD/PEN rose 1.43% to 3.48, highlighting vulnerability to gold volatility and potential imported inflation risks.
The Day Ahead
With no scheduled Andean data releases tomorrow, attention turns to potential commodity swings influencing Chile and Peru's export sectors, particularly copper and gold amid global demand signals. Colombia may monitor oil price recovery post-Brent's drop, as it affects fiscal balances and Ecopetrol performance. Broader market sentiment could hinge on any unscheduled policy announcements from BanRep, given recent insights on tighter policy amid resilient recovery.
Investors should watch for FX interventions if CLP or PEN volatility persists, especially with Chile's aggressive rate path. Overall, a quiet calendar underscores reliance on external factors like US data for directional cues.
Other Economic Notes
Broader Andean themes highlight divergence in commodity reliance, with Chile and Peru benefiting from mining rebounds while Colombia navigates oil price shocks. Fiscal balances remain under scrutiny, as Peru's royalty projections face cuts and Chile contends with lithium oversupply despite steady production. Political risks, including reform agendas, continue to influence sovereign spreads and FX stability across the bloc.
Global Macro News
Global macro developments weighed on Andeans, with Brent crude's 13.14% slump to $102.80 amplifying Colombia's export vulnerabilities, though its resilient oil-supported recovery, as noted by Societe Generale, prompts BanRep caution. (cont...)
