Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Andean Equities Dip on War Risks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 40.11 | -3.40% |
| MSCI Peru | 77.86 | -1.07% |
| USD/COP | 3,726.50 | +1.94% |
| USD/CLP | 909.65 | +1.16% |
| USD/PEN | 3.51 | -0.05% |
| Copper | 5.97 | +3.00% |
| Gold | 4,560.40 | +0.90% |
| Brent Crude | 113.33 | -0.97% |
| Bitcoin | 80,856.00 | +1.29% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Chile Short-term Rate | 4.50% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Chile Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Chile Short-term Rate %: 4.5 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.32–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 0.32,9.75,9.44,5.15,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Andean markets weakened amid global war jitters, with Chile's MSCI down 3.40% and Peru's off 1.07%, while Colombia held flat at 9.02.
- FX pressures mounted as USD/COP rose 1.94% to 3,726.50 and USD/CLP climbed 1.16% to 909.65, though USD/PEN edged down 0.05% to 3.51.
- Commodities diverged with copper up 3.00% to 5.97, gold gaining 0.90% to 4,560.40, and Brent slipping 0.97% to 113.33.
Yesterday's Recap
Andean markets faced headwinds from global risk aversion, with Chile's MSCI index dropping 3.40% to 40.11 amid investor splits over the Iran war's economic impact, as reported by Bloomberg. Peru's MSCI index fell 1.07% to 77.86, pressured by broader commodity volatility despite copper's 3.00% gain to 5.97, reflecting ongoing mining sector challenges. Colombia's MSCI index remained unchanged at 9.02, but a tragic gas explosion killed nine coal miners in Sutatausa, highlighting persistent safety risks in the mining industry that could affect fiscal revenues from coal exports.
FX moves showed the Colombian peso weakening significantly, with USD/COP up 1.94% to 3,726.50 on USD strength and domestic fiscal concerns. Chile's peso also depreciated, with USD/CLP rising 1.16% to 909.65, tied to equity outflows and war-related uncertainty. Peru's sol was resilient, with USD/PEN down 0.05% to 3.51, supported by gold's 0.90% rise to 4,560.40 and steady mining developments like Pecoy Copper's addition of a third drill rig for exploration momentum.
The Day Ahead
With no major Andean data releases scheduled for May 6, attention turns to potential spillover from global commodity trends, particularly copper and oil prices that influence Chile and Colombia's export revenues. Investors will monitor any updates on Chile's central bank response to war-induced uncertainty, as BCCh has flagged heightened volatility risks. Peru's mining sector could see sentiment shifts from ongoing exploration announcements, such as those from Pecoy Copper, amid stable FX conditions.
Broader Andean fiscal balances may react to any escalation in Middle East tensions affecting Brent crude, currently at 113.33 after a 0.97% drop. Expect quiet trading unless external shocks prompt FX interventions, especially in Colombia where BanRep remains vigilant on inflation.
Other Economic Notes
Andean economies remain heavily exposed to commodity cycles, with Chile and Peru's reliance on copper exports amplifying vulnerability to global demand shifts, as seen in recent output dips and fiscal pressures. Colombia's oil-dependent fiscal framework faces risks from Brent volatility, compounded by mining accidents that disrupt coal production and royalty inflows. Emerging themes like Chile's lithium sector offer diversification potential but are tempered by weak EV demand globally.
