Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
COP Weakens, Copper Boosts Peru Stocks
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 40.85 | -0.85% |
| MSCI Peru | 84.20 | +0.50% |
| USD/COP | 3,772.09 | +0.31% |
| USD/CLP | 896.06 | -0.13% |
| USD/PEN | 3.43 | +0.00% |
| Copper | 6.65 | +2.56% |
| Gold | 4,703.60 | +0.56% |
| Brent Crude | 108.10 | +0.31% |
| Bitcoin | 80,616.02 | +0.17% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Chile Short-term Rate | 4.50% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Chile Short-Term Rate | Type: macro_line | Chile Short Rate: 4.5 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.32–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 0.32,9.75,9.44,5.15,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Colombian peso drops 3.01% weekly, worst in EM; EMBI hits 294bp
- Copper jumps 2.56% to $6.65/lb, lifting MSCI Peru +0.50%; Chile slips -0.85%
- Empty Andean calendar; BoC rate decision spotlights global policy shifts
Yesterday's Recap
Andean markets diverged on May 12, with commodity gains cushioning Colombia's risk pressures. MSCI Peru rose 0.50% to 84.20, fueled by copper's 2.56% surge to $6.65/lb, which supports Peru's mining exports (58% copper share). MSCI Chile declined 0.85% to 40.85 despite the metal rally, as USD/CLP dipped only -0.13% to 896.06.
MSCI Colombia stayed flat at 9.02, but USD/COP climbed 0.31% to 3,772.09 following a sharp weekly -3.01% fall to TRM 3,747.10, marking the worst EM performance. USD/PEN held steady at 3.43. Brent crude gained 0.31% to 108.10, offering slight backing for Colombia's Ecopetrol, while gold advanced 0.56% to 4,703.60.
Colombia's EMBI rose 32bp to 294bp recently, surpassing Brazil and Peru in country risk.
The Day Ahead
Andean schedules stay blank through May 14, shifting attention to international developments. Bank of Canada reveals its overnight rate target at 09:45 ET today, with the Monetary Policy Report—markets anticipate a hold due to persistent inflation. BoC also issues the Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations at 11:30 ET, Market Participants Survey at 10:30 ET, and Summary of Deliberations at 13:30 ET.
No meetings from BanRep, BCCh, or BCRP; upcoming Peruvian releases could feature Q1 GDP indicators. Traders monitor copper futures for fiscal effects on Chile and Peru.
Other Economic Notes
Peru's election count approaches 99.68% with Roberto Sánchez of Juntos por el Perú ahead, potentially easing political uncertainty post-volatility. Colombia faces rising fiscal strains as tax revenues slow, with March deficit reaching 1.9% of GDP. Chile's copper revenues exceed 2026 budget by ~0.4% of GDP, backed by Codelco's +3.2% y/y April production; lithium prices steady at $11,200/t.
Andean trade balances strengthen on mining—Peru's April surplus expanded amid copper inflows. Brent over $108 bolsters Colombia's oil royalties (+2.8% y/y), despite a 1.9% m/m volume drop.
Global Macro News
Copper's rally signals China's industrial recovery, enhancing Chile and Peru's terms of trade, while Brent stability aids Colombia. BoC's May 13 announcement stands out—ongoing inflation could postpone cuts, differing from ECB's steady 2.00% deposit rate. <i>↓ p.2</i>
