Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

June 18, 2026 robomacro.com

Chile Stocks Fall as Copper Declines

Market Snapshot

AssetLevelChange
MSCI Colombia9.02+0.00%
MSCI Chile41.01-1.32%
MSCI Peru88.88+0.87%
USD/COP3,444.35+0.32%
USD/CLP889.77+0.51%
USD/PEN3.37-0.89%
Copper6.39-1.45%
Gold4,260.00-2.27%
Brent Crude78.59-1.21%
Bitcoin63,908.72-2.58%
Colombia 10Y Govt Yield--
Chile Short-term Rate4.50%+0.00%

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available
Chile Short-Term RateChile Short-Term Rate | Type: macro_line | Percent: 4.5 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.54–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 0.54,10.75,9,5,4.5

Today's Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
No events available
  • MSCI Chile fell 1.32% while MSCI Peru rose 0.87% and MSCI Colombia held flat amid commodity weakness.
  • USD/CLP and USD/COP rose 0.51% and 0.32% respectively as USD/PEN declined 0.89% on relative strength.
  • Copper dropped 1.45% to 6.39 and Brent fell 1.21% to 78.59, pressuring fiscal and trade balances across the bloc.

Yesterday's Recap

Andean markets reflected commodity price declines with limited local data. Chile’s MSCI index fell 1.32% to 41.01 as copper prices dropped 1.45% to 6.39, weighing on mining revenues and the current account. Peru’s MSCI index gained 0.87% to 88.88, supported by USD/PEN strength that eased import costs.

Colombia’s MSCI index remained unchanged at 9.02 despite Brent crude falling 1.21% to 78.59, which trims oil-related fiscal receipts. USD/CLP rose 0.51% to 889.77 and USD/COP advanced 0.32% to 3,444.35, reflecting broad USD firmness. Chile’s short-term rate held at 4.50% with no policy shift.

No Tier-1 releases occurred in any Andean country.

The Day Ahead

The calendar shows no scheduled economic releases across Colombia, Chile or Peru. Markets will monitor global commodity flows and any Fed commentary that could influence USD/CLP and USD/COP. Chile’s mining sector remains sensitive to further copper price moves given its weight in fiscal math.

Colombia’s energy names face continued pressure from Brent levels near 78.59. Peru’s PEN may extend gains if gold and copper stabilize. Regional central banks remain on hold with no statements expected.

Other Economic Notes

Commodity dependence continues to shape fiscal balances, with Chile and Peru exposed to copper and Colombia to oil. Lower metals prices reduce royalty collections and widen trade gaps in the near term. Lithium developments in Chile offer longer-term diversification potential but have not yet offset copper volatility.

Political risks around mining policy remain a latent driver of sovereign spreads in all three countries.

Global Macro News

Fed Chair Warsh described the US economy as expanding at a solid pace after rates were left unchanged, supporting broad USD strength against COP and CLP. ECB’s Lagarde noted energy-price pressures spreading through the euro area, which may keep external demand for Andean exports subdued. BHP’s planned $1.5 billion Chile power transmission sale highlights ongoing infrastructure monetization in mining regions.

<i>↓ p.2</i>

Page 1

Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

June 18, 2026 robomacro.com
USD/CLP 3M USD/CLP 3M | Type: market_hloc | Exchange Rate: 889.8 (2026-06-18) | Range: 881.2–930.2 | Trend(6pt): 906.9,897.2,900.5,896.6,890,889.8
Copper Futures (HG=F) 3M Copper Futures (HG=F) 3M | Type: market_hloc | Price: 6.388 (2026-06-18) | Range: 5.343–6.649 | Trend(5pt): 5.554,5.871,5.795,6.305,6.388
MSCI Chile ETF (ECH) 3M MSCI Chile ETF (ECH) 3M | Type: market_hloc | Price: 41.01 (2026-06-17) | Range: 37.43–44.27 | Trend(5pt): 39.15,41.79,39.49,41.31,41.01
MSCI Peru ETF (EPU) 3M MSCI Peru ETF (EPU) 3M | Type: market_hloc | Price: 88.88 (2026-06-17) | Range: 73.06–88.88 | Trend(5pt): 76.98,84.31,76.6,83.3,88.88

Global Macro News (continued)

Protests at Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi copper mine risk global supply disruptions that could eventually support prices. IMF upgrades to Oman’s growth forecast underscore resilient emerging-market fiscal positions but offer little direct read-through for the Andes. Copper’s decline after hawkish US signals trims near-term revenue projections for Chile and Peru.

Andean Central Banks Watch

BCCh holds the policy rate at 4.50% with neutral guidance as inflation remains contained and growth data mixed. BanRep maintains its relatively hawkish stance given persistent price pressures, keeping the cycle on hold longer than regional peers. BCRP continues its stable path with minimal intervention in FX markets and steady reserve management.

Rate paths show clear divergence: Chile has delivered the largest cumulative cuts while Colombia lags and Peru stays on the sidelines. The committee voted to hold. FX intervention remains limited across the three banks, with reserves focused on buffering external shocks rather than targeting specific levels.

ECB Deposit Rate stands at 2.25%.

Sponsored by Arbitrage Search
Page 2