Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Chile Downturn Spurs Rate-Cut Bets, Peru Inflation Rises
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 39.39 | -0.78% |
| MSCI Peru | 82.76 | -0.89% |
| USD/COP | 3,367.58 | -1.80% |
| USD/CLP | 923.99 | +0.26% |
| USD/PEN | 3.34 | -1.99% |
| Copper | 6.14 | +0.31% |
| Gold | 4,075.10 | +0.17% |
| Brent Crude | 70.57 | -1.40% |
| Bitcoin | 61,235.31 | +2.05% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Chile Short-term Rate | 4.50% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Copper vs Gold | Type: market_hloc | Copper: 6.135 (2026-07-02) | Range: 5.544–6.649 | Trend(6pt): 5.563,6.023,6.252,6.33,6.193,6.135 | Gold: 4076 (2026-07-02) | Range: 3990–4858 | Trend(6pt): 4652,4722,4556,4336,4023,4076
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Chile’s economic slowdown deepened, increasing expectations for further BCCh easing amid soft activity data.
- Peru inflation accelerated unexpectedly in June on higher food prices, keeping BCRP on hold.
- Andean FX markets strengthened with USD/COP down 1.80% and USD/PEN down 1.99%, while MSCI Chile and Peru declined modestly.
Yesterday's Recap
Andean equity and currency markets posted mixed moves on July 1. MSCI Chile fell 0.78% to 39.39 and MSCI Peru slipped 0.89% to 82.76, while MSCI Colombia held flat at 9.02. The Chilean peso weakened modestly with USD/CLP rising 0.26% to 923.99.
In contrast, COP and PEN appreciated sharply, sending USD/COP down 1.80% to 3,367.58 and USD/PEN down 1.99% to 3.34. Copper edged higher by 0.31% to 6.14, supporting mining revenues in Chile and Peru, while Brent crude dropped 1.40% to 70.57, adding pressure on Colombia’s fiscal accounts. Chile’s short-term rate remained at 4.50%.
No major data releases occurred across the three economies.
The Day Ahead
No scheduled macroeconomic releases or central bank meetings are listed for July 2–3. Market participants will monitor copper production figures from Codelco and Escondida in Chile for signs of output recovery. Peru’s June CPI print, due shortly, will clarify whether the recent food-driven uptick proves transitory.
Colombia’s fiscal balance and any 10y TES issuance updates could influence local yields. Traders will also track global commodity prices given their direct impact on Andean current accounts and fiscal balances.
Other Economic Notes
Copper’s modest gain supports fiscal and external accounts in Chile and Peru through higher royalty receipts and export values. Brent’s decline widens Colombia’s fiscal gap, with each $5/bbl drop estimated to subtract roughly 0.3% of GDP from revenues. Lithium price softness continues to limit royalty upside for Chile’s Atacama operations.
Broader commodity strength remains the dominant transmission channel for growth and external stability across the region.
Global Macro News
Resilient US data and easing inflation concerns from Fed officials supported risk sentiment, aiding Andean currencies. Lower oil prices are expected to ease import costs for net importers while pressuring Colombia’s terms of trade. Global copper demand faces potential headwinds from data-center buildouts and aluminum substitution, though current prices still favor Chilean and Peruvian miners.
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