Andeans Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Chile Holds; Colombia Rate Hike Looms on Sticky Prices
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSCI Colombia | 9.02 | +0.00% |
| MSCI Chile | 38.91 | -0.44% |
| MSCI Peru | 83.35 | -1.76% |
| USD/COP | 3,191.25 | -0.62% |
| USD/CLP | 932.73 | -0.18% |
| USD/PEN | 3.38 | -0.66% |
| Copper | 6.44 | +2.69% |
| Gold | 4,140.60 | +2.62% |
| Brent Crude | 90.20 | -0.60% |
| Bitcoin | 64,525.40 | +0.97% |
| Colombia 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Chile Short-term Rate | 4.50% | +0.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
Chile Short-Term Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Chile Policy Rate %: 4.5 (2026-06-01) | Range: 0.75–11.25 | Trend(5pt): 0.75,11.17,8.98,5,4.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 12 | 12.50 | 10:00 |
| Friday (2026-07-31) | |||
| Central Bank Interest Rate Decision | 12 | 12.50 | 10:00 |
- Chile central bank holds rate at 4.5% as industrial output misses
- Colombia BanRep expected to hike to 12.5% amid sticky prices
- Copper jumps 2.69% while MSCI Peru and Chile equities slip
Yesterday's Recap
Chile’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, matching consensus. MSCI Chile declined 0.44% to 38.91 while MSCI Peru dropped 1.76% to 83.35 despite firmer commodity prices. MSCI Colombia held flat at 9.02.
The Chilean peso strengthened modestly as USD/CLP fell 0.18% to 932.73, while USD/COP eased 0.62% to 3,191.25 and USD/PEN declined 0.66% to 3.38. Copper rose 2.69% to 6.44 per pound and gold advanced 2.62% to 4,140.60, providing support to fiscal revenue projections in Chile and Peru even as equity indices lagged. Chile Short-term Rate stayed at 4.50%.
Brent Crude slipped 0.60% to 90.20 while Bitcoin gained 0.97% to 64,525.40.
The Day Ahead
Colombia’s central bank will announce its rate decision at 10:00 ET with markets pricing in a 50 basis point increase to 12.5%. The move would mark a clear divergence from Chile’s hold and Peru’s steady stance. Traders will watch for any signal on further tightening if inflation remains above target.
Copper and gold price momentum may influence sentiment in Lima and Santiago ahead of any follow-through data. No major releases are scheduled for Chile or Peru, leaving the BanRep outcome as the dominant regional event.
Other Economic Notes
Elevated copper prices at 6.44 per pound should ease near-term fiscal pressure on Chile’s Codelco and Peru’s mining sector, though sustained strength is needed to offset earlier production shortfalls. Colombia’s oil hedge covering 35% of 2026 output at 82 per barrel limits downside from Brent’s 0.60% dip to 90.20. Lithium output guidance from Chilean producers remains subdued, trimming projected royalty inflows and highlighting structural challenges in non-copper revenue.
Regional current-account balances stay supported by commodity exports despite equity market weakness. MSCI Colombia at 9.02 showed resilience while USD/COP at 3,191.25 reflected modest peso strength.
Global Macro News
Eurozone CPI held at 2.80% year-on-year through June while unemployment stayed at 6.30%, keeping the ECB deposit rate at 2.25% and supporting a cautious global risk tone. Softer Chinese PMI data weighed on industrial metals sentiment earlier in the week, yet copper’s rebound suggests resilient physical demand. <i>↓ p.2</i>
