Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Merval Edges Higher, Peso Steady
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,632,795.00 | +0.25% |
| USD/ARS | 1,415.50 | +0.00% |
| YPF | 36.78 | -0.30% |
| MercadoLibre | 1,769.52 | -1.03% |
| Globant | 50.43 | -2.29% |
| Soybeans | 1,190.00 | +0.80% |
| Gold | 5,194.20 | +2.02% |
| Bitcoin | 70,732.59 | +3.41% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
FX Reserves | Type: macro_line | Reserves (USD mn): 52.97 (2026-01-01) | Range: -53.91–53.02 | Trend(6pt): -8.678,0.814,-27.92,23.89,32.6,52.97
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Merval rose 0.25% to 2,632,795 amid commodity gains and low volatility, signaling cautious equity optimism.
- USD/ARS unchanged at 1,415.50, reflecting BCRA's effective crawling peg and stable parallel rates.
- ADRs mixed with YPF down 0.30%, but soybeans up 0.80%, supporting export prospects.
Yesterday's Recap
Argentine markets showed modest gains on March 9, with the Merval index up 0.25% to 2,632,795.00 on light volume, led by financial and commodity sectors. The official USD/ARS rate held flat at 1,415.50 under the BCRA's 2% monthly crawling peg, aiding slight convergence in parallel blue dollar rates near 1,420. YPF's ADR dipped 0.30% to 36.78 in New York, despite Vaca Muerta output at 350,000 barrels daily amid oil fluctuations.
MercadoLibre fell 1.03% to 1,769.52, and Globant dropped 2.29% to 50.43, hit by global tech weakness. No key data emerged, but recent industrial trends supported sentiment, with focus on IMF fiscal targets. Sovereign bond spreads tightened 10 basis points to 1,840 over U.S.
Treasuries, helped by debt talk progress.
The Day Ahead
March 10 features no economic releases, shifting attention to BCRA FX moves if parallel rates shift in thin liquidity. Economy Ministry may update on fiscal surplus, affecting peso and IMF reviews. Vaca Muerta updates could lift energy stocks like YPF.
Commodity shifts in soybeans and gold may spur Merval volatility. Expect a calm session eyeing USD/ARS near 1,420.
Other Economic Notes
Argentina advances IMF compliance with fiscal surplus at 1.5% of GDP, building reserves to $35 billion. Vaca Muerta draws $10 billion yearly investments, boosting energy exports and cutting imports. Inflation easing to 250% YoY allows gradual control relaxation, though manufacturing wage pressures risk recovery.
Global Macro News
Commodity swings impact Argentina's exports, with El Nino potentially lifting sugar prices and aiding soybeans if harvests weaken, per U.S. analysts noting oil's role. Middle East tensions rise as Argentina warrants arrest for Iran's new IRGC chief over 1994 AMIA bombing, possibly hiking energy costs to benefit Vaca Muerta.
Qatar hosts Spain-Argentina La Finalissima soon, boosting Argentina's profile amid World Cup countdown. (cont...)
