| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,642,584.25 | -1.96% |
| USD/ARS | 1,396.50 | +0.07% |
| YPF | 38.25 | -0.03% |
| MercadoLibre | 1,670.00 | -0.60% |
| Globant | 44.95 | -0.62% |
| Soybeans | 1,198.75 | -1.01% |
| Gold | 4,994.00 | -1.16% |
| Bitcoin | 73,112.62 | +0.44% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Argentine markets closed lower on March 15, with the Merval index dropping 1.96% to 2,642,584.25, influenced by emerging market weakness and commodity price declines. The USD/ARS official rate increased 0.07% to 1,396.50, reflecting controlled dynamics under the BCRA's crawling peg, with parallel rates stable. YPF shares edged down 0.03% to 38.25, despite Vaca Muerta potential, as oil markets softened.MercadoLibre and Globant fell 0.60% to 1,670.00 and 0.62% to 44.95, respectively, tracking tech sector pressures. Soybeans decreased 1.01% to 1,198.75, impacting agro-exports, while gold dropped 1.16% to 4,994.00, diminishing reserve appeal. Bitcoin rose 0.44% to 73,112.62, providing some offset.No economic data was released, but markets responded to fiscal concerns and global uncertainty, including the cancelled Spain-Argentina Finalissima due to Middle East conflict.
March 16 has no scheduled economic releases or events in Argentina, per calendar data. Focus will be on global sentiment, especially US inflation indicators, which could affect Argentine bonds and stocks via spillover. Traders will watch BCRA reserve trends amid export inflows.Updates on Vaca Muerta energy projects may influence energy equities. Parallel peso movements could signal capital control shifts. Expect subdued trading unless commodity or oil volatility arises from external factors.
Buenos Aires province has seen severe industrial decline, with 5,800 companies closing during the Milei era, accounting for nearly 30% of national closures. This affects multiple sectors, raising unemployment concerns amid austerity measures. Investors are employing "HALO" strategies amid black swan risks, reviving fears of political instability from the "old caste." Political tensions include reported government unease with former spokesperson Manuel Adorni, impacting Cabinet dynamics and the Milei siblings' cultural agenda.
US economy shows slowing growth with new inflation shocks, as per PCE data indicating calm before potential storms, which may raise borrowing costs for Argentina. Fed faces challenges with persistent inflation, possibly delaying rate cuts and tightening dollar liquidity, complicating Argentine reserve accumulation. Oil and inflation dynamics could aid Vaca Muerta exports but increase peso import pressures.Emerging market bonds face deficit scrutiny, potentially widening Argentine sovereign spreads under IMF review. Commodity drops in soybeans and gold hurt agro and mining sectors, vital for FX. Geopolitical issues, like the Spain-Argentina Finalissima cancellation in Qatar due to Middle East war, heighten global risk aversion.These elements underscore vulnerabilities in Merval and ARS stability.
No new BCRA announcements emerged, but reserve management remains key amid commodity dips and export flows. The crawling peg holds at steady levels, supporting official USD/ARS stability and narrowing parallel gaps for IMF compliance. Moderating inflation trends suggest a hold on rates, with the committee maintaining current policy.Focus is on gradual FX adjustments if conditions improve, reducing devaluation risks. Vaca Muerta inflows are crucial for sustaining reserves, potentially bolstering bonds if IMF discussions advance.