Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

March 25, 2026 robomacro.com

Merval Rallies as ARS Holds Steady

Market Snapshot

AssetLevelChange
MERVAL2,778,025.00+1.93%
USD/ARS1,397.05-0.00%
YPF42.56+3.28%
MercadoLibre1,612.02-3.24%
Globant43.08-3.95%
Soybeans1,155.75+0.06%
Gold4,559.80+3.65%
Bitcoin71,232.26+1.01%

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available
Brent Oil PriceBrent Oil Price | Type: macro_line | Oil Price USD: 101 (2026-03-16) | Range: 59.93–133.2 | Trend(5pt): 63.77,117.4,93.99,73.16,101

Today's Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
No events available
  • Merval index climbs 1.93% to 2,778,025.00, led by energy gains with YPF up 3.28% to 42.56.
  • USD/ARS holds flat at 1,397.05, maintaining crawling peg stability amid BCRA oversight.
  • Commodities vary: soybeans +0.06% to 1,155.75, gold surges 3.65% to 4,559.80 on safe-haven flows.

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine markets displayed strength as the Merval index advanced 1.93% to 2,778,025.00, supported by robust energy sector performance, including YPF's 3.28% increase to 42.56. However, tech stocks faced headwinds, with MercadoLibre declining 3.24% to 1,612.02 and Globant dropping 3.95% to 43.08, mirroring Nasdaq weakness. The USD/ARS rate stayed unchanged at 1,397.05, highlighting the BCRA's commitment to the crawling peg.

Commodity movements included a slight 0.06% rise in soybeans to 1,155.75 and a strong 3.65% gain in gold to 4,559.80. Bitcoin edged up 1.01% to 71,232.26, contributing to positive risk sentiment. No significant economic data was released, allowing focus on global influences and local equity resilience amid external pressures.

The Day Ahead

With no economic events scheduled, markets may experience subdued activity, centering on potential BCRA actions to uphold peso stability. Investors could watch for updates on Vaca Muerta energy projects, which might affect YPF and export-related stocks. Parallel exchange rates will be monitored for any shifts from the official USD/ARS.

Global factors, such as U.S. market trends, could influence Merval direction. Any surprise announcements from the Milei government on fiscal matters might introduce volatility.

Other Economic Notes

President Milei's fiscal reforms, emphasizing tax reductions and deregulation, are fostering industrial and retail improvements despite inflation challenges. Vaca Muerta production growth supports export revenues and aligns with IMF programme goals. Ongoing discussions about Argentina's dictatorship history, including victim identifications and Milei's views on past atrocities, highlight social tensions that could impact sentiment.

These elements underscore efforts toward economic stabilization and real wage recovery.

Global Macro News

Global markets contend with U.S. slowdown indicators, including inflation upticks and growth deceleration tied to Middle East conflicts, which may strain emerging economies like Argentina. (cont...)

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Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

March 25, 2026 robomacro.com
Brazil Industrial Prod YoY Brazil Industrial Prod YoY | Type: macro_line | IP YoY %: -1.141 (2025-12-01) | Range: -6.41–32.61 | Trend(5pt): 32.61,-0.62,0.2507,4.154,-1.141
US Fed Funds Rate US Fed Funds Rate | Type: macro_line | Fed Funds %: 3.64 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.06–5.33 | Trend(6pt): 0.07,1.21,5.33,4.83,3.72,3.64
Merval Equity Index Merval Equity Index | Type: market_hloc | MERVAL: 2.778e+06 (2026-03-23) | Range: 2.571e+06–3.244e+06 | Trend(5pt): 3.115e+06,2.933e+06,2.977e+06,2.597e+06,2.778e+06
Gold Commodity Gold Commodity | Type: market_hloc | Gold: 4561 (2026-03-25) | Range: 4314–5318 | Trend(5pt): 4529,4760,5004,5120,4561

Global Macro News (continued)

The EU-Australia trade agreement reflects diversification strategies amid U.S. uncertainties, potentially aiding Argentina's commodity trade. IMF alerts on U.S.

debt reaching 124% of GDP signal fiscal vulnerabilities that could restrict global funding access. Eased Middle East tensions have bolstered currencies, with the Philippine peso rebounding to 59:1 versus USD, possibly benefiting ARS outlook. Commodity fluctuations persist, with gold's rally contrasting stable soybeans, key for Argentina's exports.

Bitcoin's uptick offers hedging options under capital controls. Iran's conflict spillovers add economic uncertainty, influencing growth projections and liquidity for Buenos Aires.

BCRA Watch

The BCRA upheld its policy rate with no adjustments, prioritizing reserve buildup to fulfill IMF obligations under the current programme. Emphasis remains on the 2% monthly crawling peg for USD/ARS, with interventions ensuring stability at 1,397.05 and reducing parallel rate gaps. Reserve strategies leverage export inflows, bolstering fiscal surplus objectives noted positively by the IMF in recent assessments.

Capital controls continue to curb outflows, enhancing programme adherence. Bond spreads have tightened on improved confidence, though any policy shifts could heighten volatility in exchange rates. The committee voted to hold rates, focusing on inflation control and peg reliability for economic actors.

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