Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
IMF Disburses $1B as War Threat Clouds Inflation
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,917,889.00 | -1.11% |
| USD/ARS | 1,358.00 | -0.59% |
| YPF | 41.54 | -1.35% |
| MercadoLibre | 1,872.12 | +1.71% |
| Globant | 48.74 | +5.29% |
| Soybeans | 1,181.50 | +1.24% |
| Gold | 4,833.10 | +0.69% |
| Bitcoin | 74,752.55 | -0.07% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
WTI Crude Oil Prices | Type: macro_line | WTI $/bbl: 100.7 (2026-04-13) | Range: 55.44–123.6 | Trend(5pt): 63.33,97.79,85.89,77.27,100.7
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- IMF greenlights $1B payout after budget approval and macro gains, boosting Argentina's reserves.
- US-Iran conflict risks derailing Milei's zero-inflation target via higher energy and food costs.
- MERVAL falls 1.11% amid global tensions, with USD/ARS down 0.59% under BCRA oversight.
Yesterday's Recap
Argentine markets encountered pressure as the MERVAL index ended down 1.11% at 2,917,889.00, influenced by worldwide volatility from the US-Iran war. The USD/ARS rate declined 0.59% to 1,358.00, supported by the BCRA's controlled crawl and minimal interventions. YPF stock dropped 1.35% to 41.54, mirroring weaker oil markets, whereas MercadoLibre advanced 1.71% to 1,872.12 on strong e-commerce performance.
Globant jumped 5.29% to 48.74, lifted by technology sector momentum. Soybeans increased 1.24% to 1,181.50 due to solid export interest, while gold rose 0.69% to 4,833.10 and Bitcoin edged down 0.07% to 74,752.55. No significant data releases took place, shifting emphasis to IMF developments that narrowed bond spreads.
The Day Ahead
Trading is expected to remain subdued with no planned economic data or events in Argentina. Focus may turn to BCRA updates on reserve handling after the IMF disbursement. Global commodity trends, particularly in soybeans and energy, could sway sentiment amid Middle East unrest.
Market participants will monitor parallel peso rates for insights into capital control effectiveness. The Milei government might address fiscal surplus goals, affecting bond pricing.
Other Economic Notes
Argentina's fiscal agenda progresses with congressional passage of the 2026 budget, prioritizing surplus to satisfy IMF requirements. Economy Minister Luis Caputo's deal on the second IMF review highlights macroeconomic strides, including labor reform nods. Juan Carlos de Pablo critiqued official zero-inflation forecasts but endorsed fiscal balance, noting exchange rate stability.
These steps aim to counter external shocks, with deregulation helping temper inflation impacts from global events.
Global Macro News
The US-Iran war heightens worldwide inflation fears, as per IMF alerts on elevated energy and shipping expenses affecting emerging markets like Argentina. The Fund reduced Nigeria's growth outlook to 4.1%, citing fuel and fertilizer price surges plus higher transport costs. (cont...)
