Merval Rallies as Peso Strengthens

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,833,120.00	+2.31%
USD/ARS	1,393.26	-0.63%
YPF	44.93	+6.04%
MercadoLibre	1,557.30	-4.61%
Globant	37.21	-5.15%
Soybeans	1,225.25	+2.13%
Gold	4,725.20	+0.14%
Bitcoin	80,637.96	-1.33%

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

Merval index rose 2.31% on energy sector gains and commodity upticks.
USD/ARS dipped 0.63%, indicating peso firmness amid stable parallel rates.
YPF surged 6.04% on Vaca Muerta news, countering tech stock losses.

Yesterday's Recap

The Merval index advanced 2.31% to 2,833,120.00, fueled by gains in energy and commodity-related stocks amid positive global sentiment. The USD/ARS rate declined 0.63% to 1,393.26, showing peso strengthening through BCRA efforts to manage the official rate, with parallel blue dollar rates remaining stable and the spread narrowing. YPF shares climbed 6.04% to 44.93, supported by reports of record Vaca Muerta shale output and Chevron's planned $10B investment tied to the new Súper RIGI Bill submitted to Congress.

Conversely, MercadoLibre fell 4.61% to 1,557.30 and Globant dropped 5.15% to 37.21, reflecting tech sector pressures. Soybeans increased 2.13% to 1,225.25, aiding export optimism, while gold rose 0.14% to 4,725.20 and Bitcoin slipped 1.33% to 80,637.96. No major economic data was released, but the Súper RIGI Bill's introduction, offering 15% corporate tax, 60% year-one depreciation, and zero export tariffs, enhanced market confidence in potential $140B investment inflows.

The Day Ahead

No major Argentine economic events are scheduled for today or tomorrow, per available calendar data. Markets may focus on global developments, including the Bank of Canada's interest rate announcement at 09:45 ET, which could influence emerging market capital flows. Additional BoC releases include the Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations at 11:30 ET, potentially signaling demand trends for Latin American exports.

Investors will watch for updates on the Súper RIGI Bill's progress in Congress, as it could drive foreign investment in energy sectors. Commodity price movements, especially in soybeans and gold, remain key for Argentina's export revenues and reserve accumulation. Overall, the quiet local calendar shifts attention to international macro cues that might affect peso stability and equity performance.

Other Economic Notes

Argentina's deregulation efforts advance with the Súper RIGI Bill targeting energy investments via tax breaks and zero export tariffs, projecting a $140B pipeline including Chevron's $10B Vaca Muerta commitment. Shale output reached a record 480 kb/d in April, supporting fiscal surplus goals. IMF statements note substantial progress on the 2026 Article IV review, aiming for a June board date and next disbursement.

Economy Minister Caputo affirmed the 0.8% GDP fiscal surplus target is on track, with deregulation decrees for 3,000 norms due by end-May. <i>↓ p.2</i>

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Other Economic Notes (continued)

Natura's Q1 report shows revenue pressures in Brazil and Argentina from macro conditions, offset by gradual recovery post-Avon integration and strength in other Latin American markets. These factors underscore Argentina's IMF compliance and commodity-driven stability amid regional challenges.

Global Macro News

Rising soybean prices support Argentina's export earnings, essential for reserve building under IMF programs. Gold's slight uptick offers a buffer against currency risks, fitting diversification needs. Bitcoin's decline highlights crypto volatility but has limited local impact compared to traditional commodities.

Bank of Canada's upcoming interest rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report could shape global rate outlooks, influencing flows to emerging markets like Argentina. The Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations may indicate export demand trends. Natura's Q1 results reveal macro headwinds in Brazil and Argentina, contrasting with resilience elsewhere in Latin America.

Hantavirus outbreak coverage, linked to a cruise ship with Andes strain cases, raises health concerns that could indirectly affect tourism and remittances, though not directly tied to macro trends. Paulo Dybala's exclusion from Argentina's World Cup roster is a sports note with minimal economic relevance. These elements highlight Argentina's exposure to commodity cycles and regional stability.

BCRA Watch

The BCRA maintains the 2% monthly crawling peg to stabilize inflation expectations, with no signals of discrete devaluations in recent communications. FX interventions have narrowed the blue dollar spread, as seen in yesterday's 0.63% peso gain, aiding reserve management per IMF targets. The central bank upholds capital controls to curb outflows, supporting a potential June IMF disbursement after progress in the 2026 Article IV review.

Rate decisions are on hold, with markets anticipating possible cuts if inflation eases further. Commodity exports, including soybeans, bolster reserve accumulation to meet IMF fiscal surplus requirements. The peg's stability is expected to persist through Q3, reducing volatility risks and enhancing confidence in peso assets and the Merval.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)