Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
IMF Disburses $1B Despite Reserve Flags
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,877,439.00 | +3.19% |
| USD/ARS | 1,389.50 | -0.55% |
| YPF | 47.94 | +1.85% |
| MercadoLibre | 1,677.90 | +1.62% |
| Globant | 40.63 | -2.78% |
| Soybeans | 1,198.50 | +0.36% |
| Gold | 4,522.90 | -0.37% |
| Bitcoin | 77,139.77 | -0.52% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Argentina Reserves & IMF Position | Type: macro_line | USD bn: -6.031e+04 (2026-03-01) | Range: -1.359e+05–-3.11e+04 | Trend(6pt): -7.119e+04,-6.696e+04,-6.41e+04,-9.695e+04,-5.778e+04,-6.031e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- IMF completes second review and disburses $1 billion, praising fiscal and monetary gains while flagging reserve shortfalls
- MERVAL jumps 3.19% to 2,877,439 as Discovery Capital raises stakes in YPF and banks
- USD/ARS slips 0.55% to 1,389.50 with soybeans firm and parallel-market gap contained
Yesterday's Recap
Argentine assets advanced after the IMF approved the second review of its program and transferred $1 billion. The multilateral body noted progress on the primary surplus and exchange-rate stability yet urged faster reserve accumulation. The MERVAL rose 3.19 percent to 2,877,439, led by financials and YPF, which gained 1.85 percent to 47.94.
USD/ARS eased 0.55 percent to 1,389.50 while the blue-chip peso held steady, keeping the spread near prior levels. President Milei told grain exporters that export-tax cuts would remain permanent and would not be reversed. Discovery Capital Management increased its Argentine equity holdings in the first quarter, focusing on YPF and selected banks.
No BCRA board members spoke publicly.
The Day Ahead
Markets will monitor reserve flows and any follow-up comments from Treasury officials on the IMF conditions. Soybean and gold prices remain sensitive to Chinese demand and global risk sentiment. Capital-control enforcement and the 2 percent monthly crawling peg stay in focus after the IMF’s reserve warning.
Equity flows may stay supportive following Wall Street’s renewed purchases. No major data releases are scheduled, leaving attention on reserve metrics and any signals on future rate adjustments.
Other Economic Notes
Introduction of REIT-style vehicles allows retail investors to access income-producing real estate from as little as $1,000, broadening domestic capital-market participation. High-grade gold and silver intercepts at Cerro Bayo and the $49.4 million dividend from the San José mine underscore ongoing mining cash generation. Milei’s fiscal-commitment remarks reinforce the administration’s pledge to sustain primary surpluses.
These developments support the IMF’s positive assessment of structural reforms even as external financing needs persist.
