Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Argentine Junk Bonds Yield Below Treasuries
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,846,220.00 | -1.08% |
| USD/ARS | 1,399.00 | +0.67% |
| YPF | 47.99 | +0.10% |
| MercadoLibre | 1,664.42 | -0.80% |
| Globant | 40.13 | -1.23% |
| Soybeans | 1,196.50 | +0.19% |
| Gold | 4,523.20 | +0.05% |
| Bitcoin | 77,348.73 | +0.48% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Fed Funds Rate | Type: macro_line | %: 3.64 (2026-04-01) | Range: 0.08–5.33 | Trend(5pt): 0.08,2.33,5.33,4.48,3.64
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Argentine junk-rated bonds yield less than US Treasuries as Milei reforms attract flows despite lending restrictions.
- Wall Street banks including Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Bank of America recommend select local equities amid LatAm outperformance in EM.
- IMF calls for flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting, moving away from dollar anchor to support disinflation.
Yesterday's Recap
Markets closed with the MERVAL falling 1.08% to 2,846,220 while USD/ARS rose 0.67% to 1,399, widening the gap between official and parallel rates. YPF edged up 0.10% to 47.99 as energy names held steady, whereas MercadoLibre declined 0.80% and Globant dropped 1.23% on global tech rotation. Soybeans gained 0.19% to 1,196.50 and gold added 0.05% to 4,523.20, providing modest commodity support.
No economic data releases occurred, leaving sentiment driven by external news flow on sovereign spreads and IMF recommendations. Reports highlighted that junk-rated Argentine bonds now yield less than US Treasuries, reflecting improved fiscal credibility under current reforms. Parallel market premiums remained contained despite the official peso depreciation.
The Day Ahead
The calendar shows no scheduled releases, directing focus to ongoing market positioning in equities and FX. Traders will monitor USD/ARS movements for signs of further official rate adjustment or intervention. Wall Street recommendations on Argentine names may influence ADRs and local volumes through the session.
Attention also turns to any follow-up comments from Economy Minister Caputo on deregulation timelines. Broader EM flows and US Treasury yields will likely set the tone for local fixed-income trading.
Other Economic Notes
Persistent capital controls continue to distort lending markets even as fiscal primary surplus targets remain on track. The combination of lower inflation prints and reserve accumulation supports the view that the crawling peg can hold through mid-year. Energy and mining sectors stand to benefit from imminent deregulation decrees that could unlock additional investment.
Sovereign spreads have tightened materially, pricing in a high probability of policy continuity.
Global Macro News
Factory activity weakened across major economies amid persistent inflation and energy price pressures linked to the Iran conflict. <i>↓ p.2</i>
