Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
MERVAL Slips as Peso Holds Steady
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,846,220.00 | -1.08% |
| USD/ARS | 1,399.00 | -0.19% |
| YPF | 47.99 | +0.10% |
| MercadoLibre | 1,664.42 | -0.80% |
| Globant | 40.13 | -1.23% |
| Soybeans | 1,187.75 | -0.73% |
| Gold | 4,535.60 | +0.32% |
| Bitcoin | 77,404.55 | +0.16% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Soybean Prices (Global) | Type: macro_line | USD per metric ton: 3182 (2026-03-01) | Range: 2360–4371 | Trend(6pt): 2952,3590,2447,3034,3324,3182
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL falls 1.08% to 2,846,220 on light month-end flows.
- USD/ARS eases 0.19% to 1,399, trimming parallel premium.
- Carry trade stays viable if crawling peg holds, Ámbito reports.
Yesterday's Recap
No economic releases appeared on the calendar. MERVAL closed 1.08% lower at 2,846,220 amid thin volume and profit-taking ahead of month-end rebalancing. USD/ARS official rate declined 0.19% to 1,399, narrowing the gap to the blue-chip swap rate.
YPF edged 0.10% higher to 47.99 on steady Vaca Muerta output, while MercadoLibre fell 0.80% and Globant dropped 1.23%. Soybeans slipped 0.73% to 1,187.75 as China demand stayed muted. Gold rose 0.32% to 4,535.60, offering a modest hedge for local portfolios.
The carry trade article in Ámbito noted that peso positions could still deliver 15-20% dollar returns if the BCRA maintains the current crawl pace.
The Day Ahead
The calendar shows no scheduled Argentine data releases. Markets will watch for any unscheduled BCRA reserve updates or Treasury cash-flow comments. IMF staff are expected to release the latest Article IV concluding statement later this week.
Traders will also track global oil prices for any spillover into local energy export receipts. Equity desks anticipate continued focus on Vaca Muerta production figures due mid-week. Positioning for the June BCRA policy survey remains light.
Other Economic Notes
April inflation prints continue to support the disinflation path, keeping 2026 market forecasts near 52%. Fiscal over-performance noted in recent IMF discussions has improved debt-sustainability metrics. Energy exports from Vaca Muerta reached fresh highs last month, adding to central-bank reserves.
Congress continues debate on a narrow VAT-broadening bill that would also trim energy export taxes. Capital-control easing remains gradual, limiting portfolio inflows.
Global Macro News
Oil prices retreated on easing Gulf tensions, supporting Argentina’s terms of trade. India’s Sensex rally on lower crude lifted EM sentiment and reduced pressure on the peso. Bangladesh and Senegal IMF talks highlight global scrutiny of reserve targets, a metric Argentina also faces.
Indonesia bonds shrugged off local rate hikes, showing EM debt resilience that could aid Argentine spreads. <i>↓ p.2</i>
