MERVAL Climbs as Peso Holds Near 1,408

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	3,166,407.00	+2.49%
USD/ARS	1,408.50	-0.07%
EUR/ARS	1,640.52	-0.12%
Gold	4,528.20	-0.71%
Brent Crude	94.35	+2.50%
Soybean	1,192.00	+0.44%
Bitcoin	72,887.90	-0.94%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL rises 2.49% to 3,166,407 on energy and bank buying
USD/ARS slips 0.07% to 1,408.50 while soybean prices add 0.44%
Fiscal consolidation and Vaca Muerta progress set a higher floor for Argentine assets

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities posted solid gains with the MERVAL advancing 2.49% to 3,166,407.00, led by energy names tied to Vaca Muerta output. The official USD/ARS rate eased 0.07% to 1,408.50, narrowing the gap with parallel quotes and signaling reduced depreciation pressure. EUR/ARS fell 0.12% to 1,640.52, while gold declined 0.71% to 4,528.20.

Brent crude surged 2.50% to 94.35, lifting export revenue prospects for the current-account surplus. Soybean futures gained 0.44% to 1,192.00, supporting export proceeds. Bitcoin fell 0.94% to 72,887.90, offering little offset to local risk appetite.

No major economic releases occurred, leaving market moves driven by external commodity strength. Itaú BBA notes that fiscal consolidation and structural Vaca Muerta advances have raised the floor for Argentine assets, though breaking historical trading ranges requires further progress.

The Day Ahead

The calendar remains quiet with no INDEC or BCRA releases scheduled for the next three days. Treasury dual-currency note auctions may still proceed, testing demand for CER-linked paper. Global risk sentiment will hinge on U.S.

ISM manufacturing data and OPEC+ supply signals that affect Brent. Soybean export registrations will be watched for further upside. Any sustained drop in parallel premiums would ease pressure on policy settings.

Regional currency moves, including the Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah weakness, underscore selective investor appetite for Argentine assets amid broader emerging-market caution.

Other Economic Notes

Fiscal consolidation has raised the floor for Argentine equities according to Itaú BBA analysis, though structural Vaca Muerta advances are still required to break historical trading ranges. Primary balance improvement reflects ongoing Treasury access to domestic markets. These developments keep the policy rate corridor intact for now.

External commodity strength, particularly in Brent and soybeans, continues to support the external balance outlook without immediate balance-of-payments pressure.

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Global Macro News

Philippine inflation risks climbing to 7.9% on food and peso weakness, echoing pressures seen in several emerging markets. Bank of England Governor Bailey signaled willingness to tolerate above-target inflation to support growth, a stance mirrored by other central banks facing soft demand. Oil prices added to inflation concerns ahead of multiple central-bank meetings, with Brent’s 2.5% jump directly benefiting Argentine export receipts.

Indonesia’s rupiah hit a record low while stocks and bonds sold off, highlighting regional currency fragility. New Zealand’s central bank signaled earlier and steeper rate hikes, tightening global financial conditions. Sweden’s Riksbank looks set to hold rates amid faltering growth, a cautious bias shared by the BCRA.

U.S. dollar strength ahead of policy signals lifted external funding costs for Argentine issuers. Foreign investors continued reducing exposure to EM local-currency bonds in Nigeria and Sri Lanka, underscoring selective appetite for Argentine assets.

BCRA Watch

Futures markets reflect reduced odds of near-term easing after recent inflation data. The BCRA is expected to keep the overnight repo corridor unchanged at the next meeting given reserves still below comfort levels. Any sustained narrowing of parallel premiums would be needed before the board considers even a modest reduction.

Weekly monetary aggregates will be scrutinized for signs of liquidity tightening. The Treasury’s access to domestic markets reduces immediate monetization pressure on the central bank. Forward guidance remains focused on reserve accumulation and fiscal support rather than near-term easing.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)