Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
MERVAL Slides as Peso Weakens
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,164,196.00 | -1.86% |
| USD/ARS | 1,438.50 | +0.83% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,669.52 | +0.69% |
| Gold | 4,491.40 | +1.23% |
| Brent Crude | 96.35 | -1.49% |
| Soybean | 1,147.00 | -0.61% |
| Bitcoin | 63,083.33 | -1.45% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Argentina Trade Balance | Type: macro_line | USD Millions: -6.031e+04 (2026-03-01) | Range: -1.359e+05–-3.11e+04 | Trend(5pt): -6.917e+04,-6.778e+04,-6.505e+04,-1.283e+05,-6.031e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL fell 1.86% to 3,164,196 on broad profit-taking
- USD/ARS rose 0.83% to 1,438.50, extending recent depreciation
- No domestic data releases occurred on June 3
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets closed lower as investors locked in gains after recent rallies in banks and energy names. The peso weakened against the dollar, with USD/ARS climbing 0.83% to 1,438.50 while EUR/ARS gained 0.69% to 1,669.52. Gold advanced 1.23% to 4,491.40 on safe-haven demand, whereas Brent crude dropped 1.49% to 96.35 and soybeans fell 0.61% to 1,147.
Bitcoin declined 1.45% to 63,083.33. The absence of fresh economic prints left markets focused on external drivers and ongoing fiscal consolidation signals. Reserve accumulation at the BCRA continued to support expectations for measured policy easing ahead of the June meeting.
The Day Ahead
No Argentina-specific releases are scheduled for June 4. Attention will turn to weekly BCRA monetary aggregates and any updates on soybean export liquidations. External prints including US ADP employment and ISM services may influence risk sentiment toward emerging-market assets.
Treasury auctions and any IMF-related commentary could also move local bonds. Traders will monitor CCL market intervention levels around current spot rates.
Other Economic Notes
The government posted its tenth consecutive primary surplus in May, equivalent to 0.4% of GDP, reinforcing fiscal credibility. IMF staff concluded Article IV consultations in Buenos Aires, with a positive review expected by end-June that would unlock the next disbursement. The Treasury recently placed inflation-linked bonds at a 7.25% real yield, 25 basis points tighter than prior auctions, signaling improved market access.
Soybean export proceeds remain the key driver of reserve gains, supporting peso stability targets.
Global Macro News
Euro-zone business activity contracted in May while inflation pressures persisted, weighing on external demand for Argentine commodities. Sweden’s softer core inflation gave the Riksbank room to delay further tightening, easing global rate-hike fears. The Philippines central bank directed banks to curb speculative peso positions after inflation forecasts topped 8%.
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