Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Peso Firms as MERVAL Edges Higher
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,174,511.00 | +0.33% |
| USD/ARS | 1,436.50 | -0.17% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,668.48 | -0.12% |
| Gold | 4,494.10 | +0.41% |
| Brent Crude | 94.97 | -0.06% |
| Soybean | 1,127.75 | -0.15% |
| Bitcoin | 62,374.75 | -2.24% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
US CPI YoY | Type: macro_line | Index: 3.947 (2026-04-01) | Range: 2.325–8.979 | Trend(5pt): 5.245,8.192,3.133,2.991,3.947
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL gained 0.33% to 3,174,511 amid thin trading and no domestic data.
- USD/ARS eased 0.17% to 1,436.50, narrowing the gap with parallel rates.
- Raízen’s $1.42 bn sale of Argentina downstream assets signals continued portfolio pruning by foreign firms.
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets closed higher with MERVAL adding 0.33% to 3,174,511 on modest volume in banks and energy names. The official USD/ARS rate declined 0.17% to 1,436.50, while EUR/ARS slipped 0.12% to 1,668.48. Gold advanced 0.41% to 4,494.10 on safe-haven demand, offsetting a 0.06% dip in Brent Crude to 94.97.
Soybean futures fell 0.15% to 1,127.75 despite supportive weather concerns for Argentine crops. Bitcoin dropped 2.24% to 62,374.75, adding to local risk-off flows. The Argentina 10Y bond showed no price change in the absence of fresh supply.
No INDEC or BCRA releases occurred, leaving markets to digest the Raízen divestment and ongoing social protests in Córdoba.
The Day Ahead
The domestic calendar remains empty through the weekend, with no INDEC, BCRA or Treasury events scheduled. Attention will stay on peso liquidity and any follow-up comments from the Ministry of Economy regarding fiscal targets. Global data from the US and Europe are unlikely to shift ARS crosses materially.
Traders will monitor soybean export registrations and any updates on the IMF program review timeline. Local bond auctions are not expected before next week.
Other Economic Notes
Raízen’s exit from downstream operations underscores persistent challenges for foreign direct investment despite improving reserves. Social protests triggered by recent femicides highlight governance pressures that could complicate fiscal consolidation efforts. Soybean export proceeds remain the key driver of reserve accumulation and peso stability through the second half of the year.
Broader disinflation trends observed in prior months continue to support expectations of measured BCRA easing later in 2026.
Global Macro News
India’s RBI held rates at 5.25% while cutting its GDP forecast and introducing measures to attract foreign inflows, illustrating emerging-market caution on growth. Sweden’s Riksbank gained room to delay hikes after core inflation rose less than expected. <i>↓ p.2</i>
