MERVAL Rises as Peso Firms on Quiet Day

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	3,112,024.00	+0.89%
USD/ARS	1,441.00	-0.38%
EUR/ARS	1,663.29	-0.26%
Gold	4,194.20	-1.54%
Brent Crude	91.00	-0.49%
Soybean	1,117.50	+0.34%
Bitcoin	60,884.63	-1.23%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

MERVAL climbed 0.89% to 3,112,024 while USD/ARS fell 0.38% to 1,441
No economic data releases occurred yesterday or today per calendar
Soybean prices edged higher, supporting export and reserve outlook

Yesterday's Recap

Argentine equities advanced modestly on June 9 as the MERVAL index rose 0.89 percent to close at 3,112,024 amid thin trading volumes. The peso firmed against the dollar with the official USD/ARS rate declining 0.38 percent to 1,441.00. EUR/ARS eased 0.26 percent to 1,663.29 in tandem with the local currency move.

Commodity markets delivered mixed signals, with gold falling 1.54 percent and Brent crude declining 0.49 percent while soybean futures gained 0.34 percent. No inflation, activity or fiscal prints were released, leaving market focus on external flows. Argentina 10Y bonds showed no price change in the absence of auctions or new supply.

Investors monitored global risk sentiment for spillover effects on emerging-market currencies.

The Day Ahead

Markets enter a data vacuum today and tomorrow with zero scheduled releases or auctions. Attention will center on any unscheduled BCRA foreign-exchange interventions and weekly reserve updates. Soybean export proceeds remain the key driver of reserve accumulation ahead of the next IMF review.

Participants will also track global commodity prices for their direct impact on Argentina’s trade balance. The lack of domestic prints allows positioning ahead of potential fiscal or monetary signals later in the month. Risk appetite will hinge on broader emerging-market flows and U.S.

dollar direction.

Other Economic Notes

Fiscal consolidation continues as the main anchor for credibility under the current IMF program. Persistent high USD/ARS levels underscore ongoing external imbalances despite recent stability. Soybean export revenues provide essential support to both the current account and BCRA reserves.

Policymakers face the challenge of rebuilding buffers while inflation expectations remain elevated. Any sustained reserve build above recent levels could open room for gradual policy easing later this year.

Global Macro News

Norway’s hotter-than-expected inflation print intensified pressure on the central bank to keep rates higher for longer. <i>↓ p.2</i>

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Global Macro News (continued)

The ECB continues to weigh rate hikes against recession risks driven by persistent price pressures and elevated oil prices. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate steady amid simultaneous inflation and growth concerns. Kenya’s central bank kept its benchmark at 8.75 percent, citing geopolitical tensions linked to Iran.

These global rate decisions shape risk sentiment and capital flows toward high-yielding emerging markets such as Argentina. Commodity price swings, particularly in oil and grains, directly affect Argentina’s export earnings and peso valuation.

BCRA Watch

The Central Bank of Argentina is expected to maintain its policy rate at the current level when it meets later this month. Daily FX interventions of modest size continue to limit peso volatility ahead of the next IMF mission. Reserve accumulation has been supported by steady soy-dollar inflows, reducing immediate pressure on the currency.

Markets currently price only limited cumulative tightening through year-end given the softer inflation trend. The board’s forward guidance emphasizes reserve targets and exchange-rate stability over near-term easing. Sustained reserve gains could eventually allow a modest cut later in the third quarter if external conditions remain supportive.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)