Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
MERVAL Slips as Peso Weakens on FX Pressure
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,254,706.00 | -2.92% |
| USD/ARS | 1,436.50 | +0.49% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,666.50 | +0.57% |
| Gold | 4,343.00 | +0.28% |
| Brent Crude | 79.16 | +0.25% |
| Soybean | 1,149.00 | +1.68% |
| Bitcoin | 64,945.26 | -1.00% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Real Effective Exchange Rate | Type: macro_line | Index: 128.6 (2026-05-01) | Range: 98.97–128.6 | Trend(6pt): 112.3,115.7,101.6,109.6,120,128.6
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL declined 2.92% to 3,254,706 amid broad equity selling
- USD/ARS rose 0.49% to 1,436.50, extending recent peso softening
- Soybean futures gained 1.68%, offering support for export inflows
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets closed lower with the MERVAL posting a 2.92% decline as investors locked in gains across financial and industrial names. The official USD/ARS rate advanced 0.49% to 1,436.50 while the EUR/ARS pair climbed 0.57%, signalling persistent demand for foreign currency. Commodity prices provided a partial offset, with soybean futures rising 1.68% to 1,149.00 and Brent crude edging 0.25% higher.
Gold added 0.28%, offering limited safe-haven support. No major data releases occurred, leaving market moves driven by positioning ahead of the Treasury bill auction and ongoing reserve management by the BCRA. The absence of fresh inflation prints kept attention on external balances and the pace of dollar purchases by importers.
The Day Ahead
The BCRA monetary policy survey is scheduled for release at 10:00 a.m., providing updated market expectations on the policy rate path. Treasury will auction LECAPs and LEDES at 4:00 p.m., testing demand for short-term peso instruments. No high-impact international data are due that directly affect ARS pricing.
Focus remains on daily FX intervention volumes and any signals from the ongoing IMF Article IV mission regarding reserve targets.
Other Economic Notes
The government extended the dólar agro export incentive through September at a 20% premium to accelerate soybean liquidation ahead of peak harvest receipts. Industrial production contracted 1.2% y/y in May while construction output posted a modest 0.8% gain, highlighting uneven domestic demand. Discussions with IMF staff continue on subsidy reform and reserve accumulation targets under the current programme.
Global Macro News
Brazil’s central bank is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 bp this week as an Iran-related deal eases some inflation pressures. Chile’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 4.5%, citing more balanced inflation risks. Australia’s central bank kept rates unchanged at 4.35% amid softening growth and still-elevated inflation.
Japan’s central bank raised its policy rate, supporting a stronger yen and adding to EM currency volatility. Broader risk sentiment improved following the U.S.-Iran developments, lifting Asian equities but leaving Argentine assets under separate domestic pressures.
