Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Merval Climbs as MSCI Eyes Index Upgrade
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 3,291,883.00 | +1.14% |
| USD/ARS | 1,450.50 | +0.63% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,660.16 | +0.09% |
| Gold | 4,172.70 | -1.22% |
| Brent Crude | 79.57 | -0.35% |
| Soybean | 1,122.75 | -0.82% |
| Bitcoin | 62,391.71 | -0.80% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Argentina Exports Value | Type: macro_line | Exports (USD mn): 33.56 (2026-04-01) | Range: -35.75–85.86 | Trend(6pt): 47.07,-1.007,-30.72,9.285,30.93,33.56
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL rises 1.14% to 3,291,883 while country risk holds below 430 points
- USD/ARS advances 0.63% to 1,450.50 on thin volumes
- MSCI accessibility review due this week could open path to foreign inflows
Yesterday's Recap
Equity and currency markets posted modest gains with limited participation. The S&P MERVAL advanced 1.14% led by banks, while the Argentina 10Y benchmark showed no change. USD/ARS climbed 0.63% and EUR/ARS added 0.09%, reflecting steady peso depreciation pressure.
Soybean futures fell 0.82% and gold dropped 1.22%, weighing on export-linked sentiment. No official data releases occurred, leaving focus on the pending MSCI Global Accessibility Review. Siemens South America CEO noted that resumed dividend payments have improved investor trust in Argentina.
Private analysts highlighted the absence of rating changes, keeping the market in standalone status.
The Day Ahead
Markets await MSCI’s Thursday accessibility review that could signal future reclassification steps. Treasury operations remain in focus with LEBAC rollover needs unchanged. No INDEC or BCRA data prints are scheduled.
Global attention centers on US jobless claims and crude inventory figures. Local participants will monitor any comments from officials on fiscal targets ahead of the next IMF mission.
Other Economic Notes
Export tax rebates on soy by-products continue to support the projected H2 trade surplus. Real wages face compression after private-sector settlements averaged below recent inflation prints. Net reserves have shown incremental gains from export proceeds despite limited spot intervention.
Fiscal consolidation remains on track toward the 1.8% primary surplus goal for 2026. Capital human investment is emerging as a medium-term priority for foreign firms operating locally.
Global Macro News
The Swiss central bank kept rates unchanged while lifting its inflation forecast due to geopolitical tensions. Brazil’s central bank delivered another 25 bp cut but signaled a possible pause amid rising price pressures. The Philippines central bank hiked its policy rate to steer inflation back to target.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
