Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
MERVAL Dips as Peso Edges Weaker
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MERVAL | 2,874,493.00 | -0.59% |
| USD/ARS | 1,497.00 | +0.13% |
| EUR/ARS | 1,748.43 | +1.03% |
| Gold | 4,545.40 | +1.25% |
| Brent Crude | 93.73 | +2.30% |
| Soybean | 1,243.50 | +1.74% |
| Bitcoin | 71,652.72 | +3.45% |
| Argentina 10Y | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Brent Crude (3mo) | Type: market_hloc | USD/bbl: 93.64 (2026-08-20) | Range: 71.57–105 | Trend(5pt): 105,87.33,78.02,89.03,93.64
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- MERVAL falls 0.59% to 2,874,493 amid thin local volume
- USD/ARS climbs 0.13% to 1,497 while EUR/ARS jumps 1.03%
- Soybean and Brent gains support export revenues and fiscal inflows
Yesterday's Recap
Argentine markets closed lower on August 19 with the MERVAL declining 0.59% to 2,874,493 as investors reduced exposure to equities ahead of a quiet data calendar. The official USD/ARS rate rose 0.13% to 1,497 while the EUR/ARS pair advanced 1.03% to 1,748.43 on euro strength. Gold climbed 1.25% to 4,545.40 and Brent crude surged 2.30% to 93.73, lifting prospects for Argentine energy and mining receipts.
Soybean futures added 1.74% to 1,243.50, reinforcing export-tax collections that fund fiscal accounts. Bitcoin rose 3.45% to 71,652.72, drawing some retail flows away from peso assets. No domestic data releases occurred, leaving the session driven by global commodity momentum and modest peso softening.
The absence of local prints kept trading ranges narrow, with activity concentrated in commodity-linked names and limited follow-through in broader equities.
The Day Ahead
Markets face a data-empty August 20 with no INDEC or BCRA releases scheduled. Traders will monitor Treasury debt operations and any spot interventions that keep the crawling peg intact. Attention turns to soybean export registrations and any updates on IMF Article IV talks.
Global risk sentiment and oil-price volatility will likely dictate ARS and MERVAL direction. The lack of fresh indicators leaves positioning driven by external flows, with participants watching for any acceleration in reserve accumulation or shifts in LETRAS auction demand that could signal improved peso appetite.
Other Economic Notes
Higher soybean and crude prices bolster export-tax revenue and ease pressure on the primary fiscal balance. Reserve accumulation continues through pre-financing and spot purchases, supporting the BCRA’s ability to defend the official rate. Fiscal consolidation remains on track as LETRAS auctions show steady domestic demand at lower yields.
Persistent inflation expectations still require tight monetary conditions even as external accounts improve. Commodity strength provides a buffer against seasonal import pressures while keeping the trade surplus supportive of the current account.
Global Macro News
Sweden’s Riksbank held its policy rate at 1.75% and flagged possible 2026 tightening if Middle East tensions lift inflation. Indonesia’s central bank also kept rates unchanged, prioritising rupiah stability. <i>↓ p.2</i>
