Peso Edges Higher as BCRA Holds Rates

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Peso Edges Higher as BCRA Holds Rates

MERVAL2,848,945.00-0.35%

USD/ARS1,541.50+0.21%

EUR/ARS1,717.99+0.38%

Gold4,042.10-0.23%

Market Snapshot

Asset	Level	Change
MERVAL	2,848,945.00	-0.35%
USD/ARS	1,541.50	+0.21%
EUR/ARS	1,717.99	+0.38%
Gold	4,042.10	-0.23%
Brent Crude	110.83	-3.89%
Soybean	1,232.75	+0.67%
Bitcoin	79,937.11	-1.64%
Argentina 10Y	-	-

Prior Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Actual
No events available

Today's Economic Events

Data	Prior	Cons	Time
No events available

USD/ARS edged up 0.21% to 1,541.50 while EUR/ARS rose 0.38% to 1,717.99, keeping the crawl within the post-reform band.
MERVAL slipped 0.35% to 2,848,945 as energy names tracked Brent's 3.89% slide to $110.83.
Soybean firmed 0.67% to $1,232.75, a modest tailwind for the export complex ahead of the crush season.

Yesterday's Recap

Argentina's calendar was empty on Wednesday, leaving price action to drive the narrative. The peso weakened modestly against the dollar, with USD/ARS at 1,541.50, a 0.21% move that keeps the currency inside the crawling-band trajectory the BCRA has maintained since the FX regime overhaul. The MERVAL gave back 0.35% to 2,848,945, with the energy complex the likely drag as Brent crude fell 3.89% to $110.83.

Soybean rose 0.67% to $1,232.75, offering a partial offset for the agribusiness exporters that anchor Argentina's trade surplus. Gold eased 0.23% to $4,042.10, a neutral signal for reserves valuation. Bitcoin's 1.64% decline to $79,937.11 had little read-across for local assets.

The 10-year sovereign yield was not quoted in the feed, leaving the curve without a fresh print.

The Day Ahead

Thursday's domestic calendar is again thin, with no scheduled Argentine data releases, so attention shifts to secondary market pricing and BCRA reserve dynamics. Traders will watch the official wholesale FX fix for signals on the pace of the crawl and any intervention tone. The energy sector remains in focus after Brent's sharp drop, with YPF and related names likely to underperform if crude stays soft.

Soybean's firmness could support exporter selling flows, which feed directly into reserve accumulation. With no local prints, global risk appetite and the Fed/ECB backdrop will dominate the peso's intraday direction.

Other Economic Notes

The disinflation trajectory remains the anchor of the macro story, with CPI at 33.4% year-on-year as of September, a level that keeps real rates positive and supports the peso-carry trade. Fiscal consolidation continues to underpin the sovereign's improved credit narrative, though the social and political cost of subsidy removal remains a live risk. Soybean export receipts are the swing factor for reserve adequacy, and the firm tone in the oilseed complex is a constructive signal.

↓ p.2

Page 1

Other Economic Notes (continued)

The IMF programme's quarterly reviews remain the key external checkpoint, with disbursements contingent on reserve targets and fiscal overperformance. Energy price adjustments tied to Brent's move will shape the next inflation prints.

Global Macro News

The Fed is on pause, but December rate-hike uncertainty is rattling stocks, bonds and currencies, tightening global liquidity conditions even without a policy move. The ECB is expected to hold rates, with investors focused on French bond spreads and Lagarde's future, keeping euro-area risk premia elevated. New Zealand's central bank surprised markets with a rate hold, a reminder that DM policy paths are diverging.

Thailand's central bank held rates as expected, reinforcing the regional pause. The Philippine peso is under pressure, with warnings it could weaken past ₱65 per dollar, a cautionary tale for high-carry EM currencies. Brent's 3.89% slide to $110.83 is a global growth signal that cuts both ways for Argentina: softer import costs but weaker energy export revenue.

Bitcoin's retreat to $79,937 signals risk-off sentiment that typically spills into EM assets.

BCRA Watch

The BCRA has held its policy stance, maintaining the crawling-band FX regime and positive real rates as the core disinflation tools. ↓ p.3

Continuation

BCRA Watch (continued)

With CPI at 33.4% year-on-year, the central bank's guidance emphasizes continuity rather than easing, and the committee's communications stress reserve accumulation as the binding constraint. The peso's modest 0.21% depreciation is consistent with the band's design, and the BCRA has shown willingness to intervene at the edges to smooth volatility. Markets should read the absence of a rate cut as a signal that the disinflation priority outweighs growth concerns, supporting the carry trade and front-end local paper.

Reserve targets under the IMF programme remain the key trigger for any policy shift, and a sustained soybean export flow would ease the pressure. Watch for BCRA commentary on reserve levels and any adjustment to the crawl pace as the next directional cue.

Argentina Macro Daily(Beta Mode)