Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Bovespa Gains, BRL Firms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 183,447.00 | +1.40% |
| USD/BRL | 5.15 | -0.98% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.99 | -0.93% |
| Vale | 15.63 | +1.96% |
| Petrobras | 17.99 | -0.94% |
| WTI Crude | 85.67 | +2.66% |
| Gold | 5,192.80 | -0.71% |
| Bitcoin | 69,647.87 | -0.40% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 15.00% | +0.00% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Brazil Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Selic Rate %: 15 (2026-01-01) | Range: 2.75–15 | Trend(5pt): 2.75,13,13.28,10.75,15
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.40 | -0.10 | 04:00 |
| Thursday (2026-03-12) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.33 | 0.65 | 04:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.44 | 3.77 | 04:00 |
- Bovespa rose 1.40% amid commodity strength, with Vale up 1.96%.
- USD/BRL fell 0.98% to 5.15 as risk appetite improved.
- Selic rate held steady at 15.00%, eyeing inflation data.
Yesterday's Recap
Brazilian markets showed positive momentum on March 10, with the Bovespa index climbing 1.40% to 183,447.00, driven by gains in commodity exporters amid rising global oil prices. Vale shares advanced 1.96% to 15.63, supported by iron ore demand signals, while Petrobras dipped 0.94% to 17.99 despite WTI crude surging 2.66% to 85.67. The USD/BRL weakened 0.98% to 5.15, reflecting broader emerging market inflows, and EUR/BRL declined 0.93% to 5.99.
Gold prices eased 0.71% to 5,192.80, pressuring some safe-haven trades, while Bitcoin fell 0.40% to 69,647.87. No major data releases occurred, but markets positioned for upcoming retail sales figures. The Brazil short-term rate remained unchanged at 15.00%, aligning with stable policy expectations.
The Day Ahead
On March 11, Brazil's retail sales month-over-month for January will be released at 04:00 ET, with consensus expecting a -0.1% print versus the previous -0.4%. This data could signal consumer spending trends amid high interest rates. Looking to March 12, inflation rate month-over-month is forecasted at 0.65%, up from 0.33%, potentially influencing BCB policy views.
The year-over-year inflation rate is anticipated to cool to 3.77% from 4.44%, offering insights into disinflation progress. Markets will watch these for impacts on Selic rate path. No other major events are scheduled, keeping focus on these releases.
Other Economic Notes
Brazil's fiscal sustainability remains under scrutiny, with commodity exports like iron ore and soybeans providing buffers against external shocks. High Selic rates at 15.00% continue to weigh on real economic dynamics, curbing credit growth and investment. Broader themes include energy transition risks for Petrobras amid global oil volatility.
Global Macro News
Global oil prices rose sharply, with WTI crude up 2.66% amid U.S. warnings on Iran and Hormuz flows, benefiting Brazil's Petrobras and export revenues. U.S.
Treasury yields fell amid geopolitical tensions involving Iran, potentially easing pressure on emerging market currencies like the BRL. China's economic nudges and India's balancing act on oil supplies highlight risks to global demand for Brazilian commodities such as iron ore. Escalating Iran tensions threaten supply chains, which could inflate energy costs and impact Brazil's inflation outlook.
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