Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Retail Beats, Inflation Edges Up
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 179,284.48 | -2.55% |
| USD/BRL | 5.23 | +1.50% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.99 | +0.01% |
| Vale | 15.07 | -1.76% |
| Petrobras | 18.97 | -0.11% |
| WTI Crude | 95.92 | +0.20% |
| Gold | 5,088.30 | -0.54% |
| Bitcoin | 71,753.19 | +1.79% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 15.00% | +0.00% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.40 | -0.10 | 0.40 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.33 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.44 | 3.77 | 3.81 |
Brazil Short-term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 15 (2026-01-01) | Range: 2.75–15 | Trend(5pt): 2.75,13,13.28,10.75,15
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Retail sales rose 0.4% MoM in January, beating consensus of -0.1%, indicating consumer strength despite high rates.
- Inflation increased to 0.7% MoM and 3.81% YoY, slightly above expectations, challenging BCB's 3% target midpoint.
- Bovespa declined 2.55% amid commodity pressures, with USD/BRL up 1.50% on global risk aversion.
Yesterday's Recap
Brazilian retail sales for January advanced 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the consensus estimate of -0.1% and rebounding from the previous -0.4% drop, fueled by resilient consumer demand despite elevated interest rates. Inflation figures revealed a monthly uptick of 0.7%, marginally exceeding the forecasted 0.65%, while the year-over-year rate reached 3.81% against a consensus of 3.77%, underscoring ongoing pressures in food and energy. The Bovespa index tumbled 2.55% to 179,284.48, dragged by declines in major exporters such as Vale, which slipped 1.76% to 15.07 due to weaker iron ore demand.
Petrobras dipped 0.11% to 18.97, contrasting with WTI crude's 0.20% gain to 95.92, amid uneven oil dynamics. USD/BRL appreciated 1.50% to 5.23, influenced by emerging market capital flight and dollar strength, whereas EUR/BRL edged up 0.01% to 5.99. Gold fell 0.54% to 5,088.30, but Bitcoin climbed 1.79% to 71,753.19, providing some offset to stock market turbulence.
The Selic rate stayed steady at 15.00%, with no changes in short-term rates.
The Day Ahead
No significant economic releases are slated for today, allowing markets to absorb yesterday's retail and inflation data. Attention may turn to news developments, including the TurisMall tourism fair in Rio, running through Saturday to promote sector growth. Tomorrow's schedule is similarly blank, offering space for reactions to commodity trends, especially in oil and iron ore, vital for Brazil's exports.
Broader items like the Supreme Federal Court's ruling granting nationality to adopted children born abroad could enhance perceptions of legal predictability. Traders might look to international signals, such as U.S. data, for guidance on BRL movements.
Expect potential consolidation in stocks and bonds during this lull.
Other Economic Notes
The energy minister's statement on maintaining stable fuel prices aids fiscal balance, cushioning against global oil fluctuations and supporting firms like Petrobras. Floods in Brazil's coffee regions, attributed to climate change, pose risks to agriculture, potentially elevating export prices and straining supply chains. (cont...)
