Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Services PMI Contracts, Bovespa Flat
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 188,162.00 | +0.06% |
| USD/BRL | 5.15 | -0.19% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.94 | +0.16% |
| Vale | 15.91 | +5.36% |
| Petrobras | 20.75 | -0.29% |
| WTI Crude | 112.92 | +0.45% |
| Gold | 4,708.80 | +1.12% |
| Bitcoin | 68,928.75 | +0.10% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 15.00% | +0.00% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Services PMI | 53.10 | - | 50.10 |
Brazil Short-term Rate | Type: macro_line | Selic Rate %: 15 (2026-02-01) | Range: 3.38–15 | Trend(5pt): 3.38,13.25,13.08,11.15,15
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 4,210m | 7,400m | 10:00 |
| Thursday (2026-04-09) | |||
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.40 | - | 04:00 |
| Friday (2026-04-10) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.78 | 04:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.81 | 4.04 | 04:00 |
| Business Confidence Index | 46.60 | - | 06:00 |
- S&P Global Services PMI dropped to 50.1, entering contraction from 53.1 prior, amid weaker demand.
- Bovespa inched up 0.06% to 188,162, led by Vale's 5.36% surge on commodity gains.
- USD/BRL fell 0.19% to 5.15, showing real strength in risk-on environment.
Yesterday's Recap
Brazil's S&P Global Services PMI fell to 50.1 from 53.1 previously, marking a shift to contraction due to softer domestic demand and external headwinds. This reading underscores challenges in the services sector under elevated Selic rates at 15.00%. Markets remained subdued, with Bovespa ending at 188,162 after a slight 0.06% increase, supported by mining gains like Vale, up 5.36% to 15.91 on iron ore optimism.
Petrobras declined 0.29% to 20.75, aligning with steady WTI crude at 112.92, up 0.45%. USD/BRL decreased 0.19% to 5.15, while EUR/BRL gained 0.16% to 5.94, as emerging markets attracted flows. Gold rose 1.12% to 4,708.80, aiding commodity stocks, and Bitcoin edged 0.10% higher to 68,928.75 with minimal Brazil impact.
Short-term rates stayed at 15.00%, with long-term yields unchanged.
The Day Ahead
Focus today is the trade balance release at 10:00 ET, with consensus for a $7.4 billion surplus versus $4.21 billion prior, which could lift sentiment if commodity exports like iron ore and soybeans outperform. No events tomorrow, allowing digestion of global developments. Thursday features retail sales month-over-month at 04:00 ET, after 0.4% prior, testing consumer strength under tight policy.
Friday includes inflation month-over-month at 0.78% consensus versus 0.7% prior, year-over-year at 4.04% versus 3.81%, and business confidence after 46.6. Inflation data will gauge pressures from oil prices, influencing Selic expectations and market moves in Bovespa and the real.
Other Economic Notes
Brazil grapples with fiscal strains, expanding fuel tax cuts and subsidies to mitigate diesel import risks from global oil disruptions linked to the Iran war. BRICS internal trade exceeding $1 trillion boosts Global South dynamics, urging Brazil to adapt in commodities like iron ore and soybeans. Labor concerns rise with BYD's inclusion on the 'dirty list' following construction site issues, highlighting risks for foreign investments in infrastructure.
