Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMI Contracts, Trade Misses
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 192,201.00 | +2.09% |
| USD/BRL | 5.11 | -0.72% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.96 | -0.85% |
| Vale | 16.74 | +3.46% |
| Petrobras | 19.98 | -3.52% |
| WTI Crude | 97.89 | +3.69% |
| Gold | 4,754.90 | +0.11% |
| Bitcoin | 71,245.55 | +0.17% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 15.00% | +0.00% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Services PMI | 53.10 | - | 50.10 |
| Trade Balance | 4,400m | 7,400m | 6,400m |
Brazil Exports YoY Growth | Type: macro_line | Exports YoY %: 3.267e+10 (2026-02-01) | Range: 2.146e+10–3.267e+10 | Trend(6pt): 2.491e+10,2.853e+10,2.84e+10,2.973e+10,2.95e+10,3.267e+10
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.40 | - | 04:00 |
| Friday (2026-04-10) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.70 | 0.78 | 04:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.81 | 4.04 | 04:00 |
| Business Confidence Index | 46.60 | - | 06:00 |
- Services PMI fell to 50.1, signaling first contraction since mid-2025.
- Trade balance at $6.4B, below $7.4B consensus amid US tariff pressures.
- Bovespa up 2.09% on miners; USD/BRL eases to 5.11.
Yesterday's Recap
Brazil's S&P Global Services PMI dropped to 50.1 from 53.1 previously, indicating the first contraction in services activity since mid-2025 and highlighting weakening domestic momentum. The trade balance came in at $6.4 billion, missing the $7.4 billion consensus but up from the previous $4.4 billion, as exports to the US plummeted for the eighth straight month amid Trump's tariff hikes. Bovespa index climbed 2.09% to 192,201, driven by a 3.46% surge in Vale shares to 16.74 on rising iron ore demand from China.
Petrobras stock fell 3.52% to 19.98 despite WTI crude advancing 3.69% to 97.89, reflecting concerns over domestic production costs. USD/BRL depreciated 0.72% to 5.11, supported by real inflows from commodity exports, while EUR/BRL slipped 0.85% to 5.96. Brazil's short-term rate held steady at 15.00%, with no changes in long-term rates reported.
The Day Ahead
Retail sales month-over-month for the prior period are due at 04:00 ET, with previous growth of 0.4% and no consensus available, potentially signaling consumer spending trends amid high interest rates. Tomorrow brings inflation rate month-over-month at 04:00 ET, consensus at 0.78% versus prior 0.7%, which could influence BCB's policy outlook. Year-over-year inflation is expected at 4.04% from 3.81%, testing the upper bound of the 1.5-4.5% target range.
Business confidence index follows at 06:00 ET, building on the previous 46.6 reading, offering insights into corporate sentiment amid fiscal pressures. These releases may drive volatility in Bovespa and real currency pairs.
Other Economic Notes
Brazil leverages critical minerals like lithium and rare earths in US tariff negotiations, positioning them as strategic assets to mitigate export declines and secure trade deals. Oil drilling in the Amazon spurs migrant surges to isolated cities, boosting local economies but raising environmental and labor concerns. Fundo Verde increased bets on Brazilian equities, warning of persistent high energy prices even after geopolitical conflicts end, while accumulating gains above CDI in 2026 through inflation-hedged strategies.
Brazil blacklisted BYD for slave labor conditions at its largest plant outside China, impacting foreign investment in the EV sector.
