Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Bovespa Edges Up, IMF Lifts Brazil's GDP
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 198,657.00 | +0.33% |
| USD/BRL | 4.99 | -0.01% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.87 | +0.04% |
| Vale | 17.68 | +1.32% |
| Petrobras | 21.01 | -4.37% |
| WTI Crude | 91.39 | +0.12% |
| Gold | 4,834.50 | +0.20% |
| Bitcoin | 74,190.00 | +0.01% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 15.00% | +0.00% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Brazil Exports Value | Type: macro_line | Exports (Index): 15.6 (2026-02-01) | Range: -15.76–61.3 | Trend(6pt): 49.25,20.28,3.199,2.423,-0.4707,15.6
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 1 | 04:00 |
| Business Confidence Index | 46.60 | - | 06:00 |
- Bovespa climbed 0.33% to 198,657.00, led by Vale's 1.32% gain to 17.68 offsetting Petrobras' 4.37% drop to 21.01.
- IMF cut global 2026 growth forecast but raised Brazil's GDP projection, citing commodity resilience.
- USD/BRL eased 0.01% to 4.99, with EUR/BRL up 0.04% to 5.87 amid stable global sentiment.
Yesterday's Recap
Brazilian markets posted modest gains on April 14, with the Bovespa index closing at 198,657.00, up 0.33%, supported by mining sector strength. Vale shares rose 1.32% to 17.68, buoyed by steady commodity demand, while Petrobras declined 4.37% to 21.01 due to oil market fluctuations. USD/BRL slipped 0.01% to 4.99, and EUR/BRL increased 0.04% to 5.87, showing mild currency stability.
WTI crude advanced 0.12% to 91.39, aiding export sectors, as gold rose 0.20% to 4,834.50 amid safe-haven buying. Bitcoin edged up 0.01% to 74,190.00, aligning with broader risk appetite. The Brazil short-term rate held steady at 15.00%, with no major data releases, contributing to unchanged bond market dynamics.
The Day Ahead
On April 15, Brazil's retail sales month-over-month data releases at 04:00 ET, with consensus at 1% following the previous 0.4%. The business confidence index is set for 06:00 ET, after the prior 46.6 reading, though no consensus is provided. These indicators may shape views on consumer strength and economic outlook, potentially affecting inflation expectations and Selic rate bets.
No significant events are slated for April 16, maintaining attention on today's data.
Other Economic Notes
The IMF lowered its 2026 global growth projection while upgrading Brazil's GDP forecast, emphasizing the nation's commodity export strength despite fiscal pressures. Petrobras continues as a strong dividend source, with robust export cash flows countering domestic challenges. Persistent primary deficits weigh on bonds, but gains in soybean and iron ore exports offer support.
Serabi Gold reported Q1-2026 production highlights, reflecting ongoing mining activity in Brazil. Vale's operations benefit from stable demand, though global uncertainties linger.
Global Macro News
The IMF warned of global recession risks if wars escalate, impacting Brazil's key export partners. Trump's proposed Strait of Hormuz blockade could spike oil prices, aiding Petrobras but disrupting supply chains worldwide. (cont...)
