Brazil Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Services PMI Climbs, Trade Surplus Solid
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | 184,616.09 | +0.76% |
| USD/BRL | 4.90 | -0.72% |
| EUR/BRL | 5.77 | -0.49% |
| Vale | 16.19 | -1.82% |
| Petrobras | 20.37 | -2.58% |
| WTI Crude | 95.61 | +0.84% |
| Gold | 4,718.40 | +0.40% |
| Bitcoin | 80,105.99 | +0.12% |
| Brazil Short-term Rate | 14.90% | -0.67% |
| Brazil Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BCB Copom Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
| S&P Global Services PMI | 50.10 | - | 52.30 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.90 | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Trade Balance | 6,410m | 10,900m | 10,540m |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.88 | - | - |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 4.14 | - | - |
Brazil Exports Value | Type: macro_line | Exports (USD): 15.6 (2026-02-01) | Range: -15.76–61.3 | Trend(5pt): 61.3,10.2,7.464,-15.76,15.6
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Services PMI rose to 52.3, indicating sector expansion on resilient demand.
- Industrial production up 0.1% MoM, beating consensus for a decline.
- Trade surplus reached $10.54 billion, supporting currency and fiscal stability.
Yesterday's Recap
Brazil's S&P Global Services PMI for April advanced to 52.3 from 50.1 prior, surpassing expectations and reflecting strong service sector activity fueled by tourism and consumer demand. Industrial production in March grew 0.1% month-over-month, exceeding the consensus estimate of -0.2% and showing resilience in manufacturing despite external pressures. The trade balance for April recorded a surplus of $10.54 billion, slightly below the $10.9 billion consensus but robust due to high commodity exports such as soybeans and iron ore.
Bovespa stocks climbed 0.76% to 184,616.09, driven by financials on positive domestic data. USD/BRL declined 0.72% to 4.90, aided by the trade surplus and weaker global dollar dynamics. Petrobras shares dropped 2.58% to 20.37 amid oil price fluctuations, while Vale fell 1.82% to 16.19 despite steady Chinese iron ore demand.
The Brazil short-term rate decreased 0.67% to 14.90%, consistent with steady inflation outlooks.
The Day Ahead
Brazil's May inflation figures are scheduled for release today, offering key insights into price trends amid elevated oil costs. Previous readings were 0.88% month-over-month and 4.14% year-over-year, with any moderation potentially shaping expectations for the Selic rate path. No significant events are set for tomorrow, directing focus to global factors like U.S.
yields and commodity shifts. Markets may react to updates from President Lula's White House discussions with Trump on trade and security, which could influence sentiment. Additionally, ongoing talks on new credit measures could prompt fiscal announcements, with thin calendars heightening sensitivity to inflation data and energy prices.
Other Economic Notes
Brazil's government is considering new lending initiatives for consumers not covered by the Desenrola debt program, seeking to enhance credit availability and bolster household consumption in a high-rate environment. Chinese investments in Brazil jumped 45% to $6.1 billion across various projects in 2025, reclaiming the top spot in global rankings and benefiting infrastructure and energy sectors. The Compass Gas e Energia IPO secured 3.2 billion reais ($650 million), marking the first such offering in nearly five years and indicating improving equity market sentiment despite fiscal challenges.
<i>↓ p.2</i>
